United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) stock analysis
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $102.00 it trades 42.9% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +42.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +1.5% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does United Airlines do?
United Airlines flies passengers and cargo on a worldwide network from hubs such as Chicago, Denver, Houston, Newark, San Francisco and Washington.
Brands and businesses it owns
- United Express
- MileagePlus
What stands out about United Airlines?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $102.00, UAL's free cash flow of $10.45 per share would have to shrink 5.6% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 9.3× (peer median 23.9×) it ranks 1st of 13 among transportation stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 1.49 (peer median 0.84) it ranks 12th of 13 among transportation stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.31; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Short interest is elevated. 5.2% of the float is sold short, 4.2 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has United Airlines' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is United Airlines undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +42.9%
- P/E vs. its own history 9.3x · the middle Real range: 5.2x–16.9x over 4 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.10/5 30 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 19 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.31 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.65 · accruals −6.7% of assets · 272% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −0.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +1.5% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 1.9% − stock comp 0.4%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 14%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $10.40 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 13% return on capital Operating profit $3.7B → $4.7B, capital needed $25B → $35B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 13% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.61 · Under fair P/E 9.3× ÷ 15.2% a year of growth behind it. 49th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.3×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.4% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 12 other transportation stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
How does United Airlines compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 12 other transportation stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.9× 9.3× ✓1st of 13
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.2% 10.2% ✓1st of 13
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 25% 22% –8th of 13
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 5.5% 5.5% –7th of 13
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% 12.3% ✓3rd of 13
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 1.49 ✕12th of 13
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and UAL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: UAL is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: UAL and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and UAL falls short of his bar. In its favor: UAL is growing at the modest, GDP-ish pace typical of a slow grower, is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: UAL doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, and carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does United Airlines pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $33.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 9.26
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.61
- Price/Book < 8 1.87
- Price/Sales < 7 0.51
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +8.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) -7.0%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) -5.9%
What is United Airlines' margin of safety?
+38% on 2026-10-07 → +43% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is United Airlines in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in United Airlines?
16,782,849 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with United Airlines? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +66%
- Short interest under 5% of float 5.2%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +20% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.26 → 1.39
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have United Airlines shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for UAL yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from UAL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do United Airlines' 10-year financials show?
From UAL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about United Airlines
What kind of company is United Airlines?
United Airlines flies passengers and cargo on a worldwide network from hubs such as Chicago, Denver, Houston, Newark, San Francisco and Washington. Brands and businesses it owns include United Express and MileagePlus. This site groups it with Airlines stocks.
Is United Airlines trading above or below its DCF value?
At $102.00, UAL trades 42.9% below this site's neutral DCF value of $178.52 per share, a margin of safety of +42.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does United Airlines pass?
UAL passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($33.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (9.26), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.61), Price/Book < 8 (1.87), Price/Sales < 7 (0.51), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+8.3%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (-7.0%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-5.9%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is United Airlines' share price pricing in?
At $102.00, UAL's free cash flow of $10.45 per share would have to shrink 5.6% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How risky is United Airlines's balance sheet?
UAL's Altman Z″-Score is 0.31, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 1.49. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How heavily is United Airlines stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 5.2% of UAL's float was sold short (16,782,849 shares, 4.2 days to cover), down 7.9% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: United Airlines's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 12, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this United Airlines Holdings Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.