EMCOR Group Inc (EME) stock analysis
EMCOR Group Inc (EME) clears 6 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 5 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $660.41 it trades 41.8% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -41.8%). Its earnings quality rates Strong. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does EMCOR Group do?
Emcor designs, installs and maintains electrical, mechanical and building systems for commercial, industrial and data center projects.
What stands out about EMCOR Group?
- The share price implies 16.9% yearly growth. At $660.41, EME's free cash flow of $27.27 per share would have to grow 16.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails vs 50-day MA (±12%) (-13.3%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-15.5%); the other 6 pass. See every filter.
- Well below its 52-week high. At $660.41, EME trades 30.0% below its high of $943.75, and 13.6% above its low of $581.58. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.00 (peer median 0.87) it ranks 2nd of 32 among industrials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.20% (peer median 1.34%) it ranks 30th of 31 among industrials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has EMCOR Group's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is EMCOR Group undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -41.8%
- P/E vs. its own history 20.2x · near the expensive end Real range: 16.2x–21.7x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.13/5 15 analysts this month: 6 strong buy, 5 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.79 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.25 · accruals −0.3% of assets · 124% of profit arrived as cash · share count −2.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 2.2% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.2% + buybacks 2.0%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 34%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.40 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $346M → $1.3B, capital needed $1.8B → $2.2B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 59% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.64 · Under fair P/E 20.2× ÷ 31.4% a year of growth behind it. 55th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses cash back (n/a) Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 31 other other industrials stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does EMCOR Group compare with its peers?
5 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 31 other industrials stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 25.8× 20.2× ✓11th of 32
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.1% 4.1% –16th of 32
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 34% 38% –13th of 32
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.7% 7.7% ✕28th of 32
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% 18.9% ✓4th of 32
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.87 0.00 ✓2nd of 32
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.34% 0.20% ✕30th of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and EME doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: EME is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: EME runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and EME clears his bar. In its favor: EME clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does EMCOR Group pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $29.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 20.19
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.64
- Price/Book < 8 7.12
- Price/Sales < 7 1.56
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +34.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) -13.3%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) -15.5%
What is EMCOR Group's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is EMCOR Group in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in EMCOR Group?
763,942 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily. This period's change looks like a stock split, not a real shift in short positions - share counts aren't split-adjusted at the source.
What could go wrong with EMCOR Group? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +16%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +13% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.27 → 0.00
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have EMCOR Group shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from EME's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do EMCOR Group's 10-year financials show?
From EME's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about EMCOR Group
What kind of company is EMCOR Group?
Emcor designs, installs and maintains electrical, mechanical and building systems for commercial, industrial and data center projects. This site groups it with Construction stocks.
Is EMCOR Group trading above or below its DCF value?
At $660.41, EME trades 41.8% above this site's neutral DCF value of $465.65 per share, a margin of safety of −41.8%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does EMCOR Group pass?
EME passes 6 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($29.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (20.19), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.64), Price/Book < 8 (7.12), Price/Sales < 7 (1.56) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+34.9%). It misses vs 50-day MA (±12%) (-13.3%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-15.5%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is EMCOR Group's share price pricing in?
At $660.41, EME's free cash flow of $27.27 per share would have to grow 16.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How much cash does EMCOR Group return to shareholders?
EME's gross shareholder yield is 2.2%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.2% + buybacks 2.0%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 34%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.20%, paid out of 5% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does EMCOR Group report earnings next?
EMCOR Group's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $8.44 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +20.5%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: EMCOR Group's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 26, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this EMCOR Group Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on EMCOR Group Inc (EME) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.