Caterpillar Inc (CAT) stock analysis
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $704.05 it trades 109.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -109.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Caterpillar do?
Caterpillar makes construction, mining and energy equipment (bulldozers, excavators, haul trucks, engines and turbines) and earns recurring revenue from parts, services and financing through Cat Financial.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Cat
- Cat Financial
- Solar Turbines
- Perkins
What stands out about Caterpillar?
- The share price implies 27.1% yearly growth. At $704.05, CAT's free cash flow of $19.72 per share would have to grow 27.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (29.62) and Price/Book < 8 (16.56); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: revenue growth. At 18.4% (peer median 5.2%) it ranks 1st of 17 among machinery stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 2.8% (peer median 4.2%) it ranks 17th of 17 among machinery stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 0.88%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Caterpillar's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Caterpillar undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -109.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 29.6x · near the expensive end Real range: 14.7x–30.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.79/5 34 analysts this month: 8 strong buy, 12 buy, 13 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.71 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.27 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.41 · accruals −3.1% of assets · 122% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −4.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.6% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 29%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.13 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $4.6B → $12B, capital needed $29B → $30B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 41% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.47 · Above fair P/E 29.6× ÷ 20.1% a year of growth behind it. 162nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 4 of 4 Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 16 other machinery stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Caterpillar compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 16 other machinery stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.7× 29.6× –10th of 17
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.2% 2.8% ✕17th of 17
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 15% 54% ✓2nd of 17
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 12.4% 14.5% ✓6th of 17
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 5.2% 18.4% ✓1st of 17
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 2.33 ✕15th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.28% 0.88% ✕13th of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CAT doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CAT is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: CAT carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CAT falls short of his bar. In its favor: CAT is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart. Where it comes up short: CAT fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 27 ✕
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Caterpillar pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $321.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 29.62
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.47
- Price/Book < 8 16.56
- Price/Sales < 7 4.30
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +68.1%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Caterpillar's margin of safety?
-159% on 2026-10-07 → -109% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Caterpillar in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Caterpillar?
8,005,755 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Caterpillar? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -24%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.8%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +43% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.73 → 1.44
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Caterpillar shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CAT's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Caterpillar's 10-year financials show?
From CAT's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
A single trade isn't automatically bullish or bearish. Insiders sell for all kinds of personal reasons. Most recent filings for CAT:
Frequently asked questions about Caterpillar
What kind of company is Caterpillar?
Caterpillar makes construction, mining and energy equipment (bulldozers, excavators, haul trucks, engines and turbines) and earns recurring revenue from parts, services and financing through Cat Financial. Brands and businesses it owns include Cat, Cat Financial, Solar Turbines and Perkins. This site groups it with Machinery stocks.
Is Caterpillar trading above or below its DCF value?
At $704.05, CAT trades 109.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $336.67 per share, a margin of safety of −109.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Caterpillar pass?
CAT passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($321.2B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.47), Price/Sales < 7 (4.30) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+68.1%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (29.62) and Price/Book < 8 (16.56). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Caterpillar's share price pricing in?
At $704.05, CAT's free cash flow of $19.72 per share would have to grow 27.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How much cash does Caterpillar return to shareholders?
CAT's net shareholder yield is +2.4%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.6% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 29%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.88%, paid out of 31% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (high leverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does Caterpillar report earnings next?
Caterpillar's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $7.16 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +16.7%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Caterpillar's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 13, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Caterpillar Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Caterpillar Inc (CAT) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.