Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) stock analysis
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $79.26 it trades 0.8% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +0.8%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +0.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Delta Air Lines do?
Delta Air Lines flies passengers and cargo on a global network from hubs such as Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York and Salt Lake City. It also owns an oil refinery and stakes in other airlines.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Delta Connection
- Delta Cargo
- Delta Sky Club
- SkyMiles
- Monroe Energy
What stands out about Delta Air Lines?
- The share price implies 7.8% yearly growth. At $79.26, DAL's free cash flow of $4.68 per share would have to grow 7.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for about the same growth as the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-47.0%); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +4% on Oct 7 to +1% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.03; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Held by investors this site follows. Warren Buffett (1.8% of its portfolio) and Stan Druckenmiller (1.3% of its portfolio), from their latest 13F filings. See Superinvestors.
How has Delta Air Lines' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Delta Air Lines undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +0.8%
- P/E vs. its own history 15.5x · near the cheap end Real range: 5.6x–89.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.13/5 30 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 20 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 4.16 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.03 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.74 · accruals −4.3% of assets · 175% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count +0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 23%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $6.1B → $5.8B, capital needed $30B → $36B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 16% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.77 · Under fair P/E 15.5× ÷ 20.3% a year of growth behind it. 62nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.0×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.1% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 12 other transportation stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Delta Air Lines compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 12 other transportation stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.9× 15.5× ✓3rd of 13
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.2% 5.9% –5th of 13
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 25% 15% ✕11th of 13
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 5.5% 4.6% ✕11th of 13
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.8% 14.1% ✓2nd of 13
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 0.57 –5th of 13
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.62% 1.01% ✕8th of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and DAL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: DAL is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: DAL carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and DAL falls short of his bar. In its favor: DAL is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: DAL doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
From Berkshire Hathaway's SEC 13F-HR filing dated 2026-08-14, compared with its 2026-05-15 filing - its own disclosed position, separate from this site's Buffett-style checklist above. 13F filings cover only U.S.-listed equity holdings and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days.
Which of the 8 value filters does Delta Air Lines pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $51.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 15.54
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.77
- Price/Book < 8 2.27
- Price/Sales < 7 0.71
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -47.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Delta Air Lines' margin of safety?
+4% on 2026-10-07 → +1% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Delta Air Lines in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Delta Air Lines?
25,570,890 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Delta Air Lines? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +41%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +42% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.62 → 0.64
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Delta Air Lines shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for DAL yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from DAL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Delta Air Lines' 10-year financials show?
From DAL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Delta Air Lines
What kind of company is Delta Air Lines?
Delta Air Lines flies passengers and cargo on a global network from hubs such as Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York and Salt Lake City. It also owns an oil refinery and stakes in other airlines. Brands and businesses it owns include Delta Connection, Delta Cargo, Delta Sky Club, SkyMiles and Monroe Energy. This site groups it with Airlines stocks.
Is Delta Air Lines trading above or below its DCF value?
At $79.26, DAL trades 0.8% below this site's neutral DCF value of $79.93 per share, a margin of safety of +0.8%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Delta Air Lines pass?
DAL passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($51.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (15.54), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.77), Price/Book < 8 (2.27) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.71). It misses EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-47.0%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Delta Air Lines' share price pricing in?
At $79.26, DAL's free cash flow of $4.68 per share would have to grow 7.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for about the same growth as the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How risky is Delta Air Lines's balance sheet?
DAL's Altman Z″-Score is 0.03, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.57, against a sector median of 0.84. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
Which well-known investors own Delta Air Lines?
Among the investors whose SEC 13F filings this site tracks, Warren Buffett (1.8% of the portfolio; added to the position) and Stan Druckenmiller (1.3% of the portfolio; a new position) held DAL as of June 30, 2026. 13F filings cover only US-listed equities and arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so they lag the real portfolios. See Superinvestors.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Delta Air Lines's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 11, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Delta Air Lines Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.