NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) stock analysis
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $212.21 it trades 146.7% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -146.7%). Its earnings quality rates Weak and it returns +0.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does NVIDIA do?
NVIDIA designs the graphics processors (GPUs) that power AI data centers, gaming PCs and professional graphics, and sells the networking and CUDA software that goes with them. Chip manufacturing is outsourced to foundries.
Brands and businesses it owns
- GeForce
- RTX
- CUDA
- DGX
- NVLink
- Mellanox
What stands out about NVIDIA?
- The share price implies 31.5% yearly growth. At $212.21, NVDA's free cash flow of $5.04 per share would have to grow 31.5% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (27.73), Price/Book < 8 (23.36) and Price/Sales < 7 (17.66); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -169% on Oct 7 to -147% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 110% (peer median 25%) it ranks 1st of 20 among semiconductors stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.16 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals 10.9% of assets · 88% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count −0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jan 2026). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has NVIDIA's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is NVIDIA undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -146.7%
- P/E vs. its own history 27.7x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 38.3x–110.9x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.30/5 69 analysts this month: 25 strong buy, 41 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.28 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 12.85 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch Beneish M-score −1.16 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals 10.9% of assets · 88% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count −0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jan 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.6% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.7% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 0%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.68 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $3.0B → $82B, capital needed $2.6B → $56B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 145% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.51 · Under fair P/E 27.7× ÷ 54.0% a year of growth behind it. 39th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: not cleared (2 earnings-quality flags); Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.4% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 19 other semiconductors stocks this site tracks: 5 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does NVIDIA compare with its peers?
5 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 19 other semiconductors stocks tracked here, 5 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 42.5× 27.7× ✓5th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 2.5% 2.4% –11th of 20
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 25% 110% ✓1st of 20
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 26.9% 63.7% ✓2nd of 20
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 23.8% 83.4% ✓2nd of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.29 0.15 ✓7th of 20
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 0.66% 0.13% ✕14th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NVDA doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: NVDA is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: NVDA is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NVDA falls short of his bar. In its favor: NVDA clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, and isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple. Where it comes up short: NVDA is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does NVIDIA pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $5.35T
- Trailing P/E < 25 27.73
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.51
- Price/Book < 8 23.36
- Price/Sales < 7 17.66
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +128.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is NVIDIA's margin of safety?
-169% on 2026-10-07 → -147% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is NVIDIA in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in NVIDIA?
311,389,688 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with NVIDIA? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -46%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.4%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +28% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.34 → 0.05
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have NVIDIA shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NVDA's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do NVIDIA's 10-year financials show?
From NVDA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
A single trade isn't automatically bullish or bearish. Insiders sell for all kinds of personal reasons. Most recent filings for NVDA:
Frequently asked questions about NVIDIA
What kind of company is NVIDIA?
NVIDIA designs the graphics processors (GPUs) that power AI data centers, gaming PCs and professional graphics, and sells the networking and CUDA software that goes with them. Chip manufacturing is outsourced to foundries. Brands and businesses it owns include GeForce, RTX, CUDA, DGX, NVLink and Mellanox. This site groups it with Semiconductors stocks.
Is NVIDIA trading above or below its DCF value?
At $212.21, NVDA trades 146.7% above this site's neutral DCF value of $86.03 per share, a margin of safety of −146.7%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does NVIDIA pass?
NVDA passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($5.35T), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.51) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+128.2%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (27.73), Price/Book < 8 (23.36) and Price/Sales < 7 (17.66). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are NVIDIA's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates NVDA Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.16 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals 10.9% of assets · 88% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count −0.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jan 2026). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (flagged), accruals (flagged) and cash conversion (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How fast has NVIDIA grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2026, NVDA's revenue grew from $6.9 billion to $215.9 billion, 46.6% a year. Net income went from $1.7 billion to $120.1 billion, and its net profit margin from 24.1% to 55.6%. Earnings per share went from $0.06 to $4.90 on today's share count, 63.1% a year. In fiscal 2026 it produced $96.7 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 44.8% of its revenue. All figures are from NVDA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Is NVIDIA's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
NVDA trades at 27.7× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 38.3× and 110.9× (average 61.5×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: NVIDIA's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jan 25, 2026, filed Feb 25, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this NVIDIA Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.