Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) stock analysis
Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) clears 1 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 1 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $414.60 it trades 939.5% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -939.5%). Its earnings quality rates Weak and it returns −1.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Axon Enterprise do?
Axon Enterprise makes Taser devices, body cameras and the cloud software that stores police video and evidence.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Taser
- Axon Body
- Evidence.com
- Axon Fleet
What stands out about Axon Enterprise?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $414.60, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 5 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (169.00), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (6.71) and Price/Book < 8 (9.17) and 2 more; the other 1 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: revenue growth. At 34.6% (peer median 12.8%) it ranks 1st of 12 among aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 169.0× (peer median 27.1×) it ranks 12th of 12 among aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Weak · 2 flags. Beneish M-score −2.26 · accruals −1.5% of assets · 119% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 22.8% of revenue · share count +4.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Axon Enterprise's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Axon Enterprise undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -939.5%
- P/E vs. its own history 169.0x · near the cheap end Real range: 81.8x–374.4x over 4 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.21/5 28 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 16 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.38 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Weak · 2 flags Beneish M-score −2.26 · accruals −1.5% of assets · 119% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 22.8% of revenue · share count +4.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −1.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 1.9%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 39%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $64.24 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 3% return on capital Operating profit $23M → $51M, capital needed $87M → $1.9B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 3% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 6.71 · Well above fair P/E 169.0× ÷ 25.2% a year of growth behind it. 424th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 0 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 3% return on capital); Profit is real: not cleared (2 earnings-quality flags); Cash to owners: not cleared (−1.1% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 6.71, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 11 other aerospace & defense stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
How does Axon Enterprise compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 11 other aerospace & defense stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 27.1× 169.0× ✕12th of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.9% 0.6% ✕12th of 12
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 22% 6% ✕12th of 12
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 8.2% 6.2% ✕9th of 12
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 12.8% 34.6% ✓1st of 12
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.66 0.47 ✓2nd of 12
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and AXON doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: AXON earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: AXON isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and AXON falls short of his bar. In its favor: AXON isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type. Where it comes up short: AXON doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Axon Enterprise pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $33.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 169.00
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 6.71
- Price/Book < 8 9.17
- Price/Sales < 7 10.46
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -19.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Axon Enterprise's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Axon Enterprise in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Axon Enterprise?
3,892,165 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Axon Enterprise? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -514%
- Short interest under 5% of float 5.0%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 1/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +19% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2023 0.42 → 0.56
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Axon Enterprise shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for AXON yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from AXON's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Axon Enterprise's 10-year financials show?
From AXON's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Axon Enterprise
What kind of company is Axon Enterprise?
Axon Enterprise makes Taser devices, body cameras and the cloud software that stores police video and evidence. Brands and businesses it owns include Taser, Axon Body, Evidence.com and Axon Fleet. This site groups it with Aerospace & Defense stocks.
Is Axon Enterprise trading above or below its DCF value?
At $414.60, AXON trades 939.5% above this site's neutral DCF value of $39.88 per share, a margin of safety of −939.5%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Axon Enterprise pass?
AXON passes 1 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($33.7B). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (169.00), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (6.71), Price/Book < 8 (9.17), Price/Sales < 7 (10.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-19.0%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Axon Enterprise's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates AXON Weak · 2 flags. Beneish M-score −2.26 · accruals −1.5% of assets · 119% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 22.8% of revenue · share count +4.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: stock-based compensation (flagged) and share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Axon Enterprise report earnings next?
Axon Enterprise's next earnings report is expected on November 2, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.93 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of +1.3%.
How heavily is Axon Enterprise stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 5.0% of AXON's float was sold short (3,892,165 shares, 3.5 days to cover), up 6.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Axon Enterprise's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 25, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Axon Enterprise Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.