Which Packaged Food Dividends Are at Risk Next?
General Mills is the packaged-food dividend to watch next, because it pays about 76% to 81% of next year's guided earnings and last quarter's free cash flow covered only about 63% of the dividend. Conagra has already halved its payout and Campbell's cut it by 36%, Kraft Heinz has held its dividend flat since 2020, and the trailing yields that screens show are misleading after a cut: Conagra's 9.5% yield on this site is really about 4.7% on its new rate.
- J.M.
- Smucker is on the other side, raising its dividend with a payout near 42% of earnings.
This is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Which packaged food dividends look riskiest right now?
Conagra's yield on its new, halved dividend of $0.70 a year, against the 9.5% trailing yield this site's screener still shows. Trailing yields include payments made before a cut.
| Stock | Trailing yield | Current-rate yield | Dividend / FCF | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Mills (GIS) | 7.1% | 7.1% | 85% | Flat at $0.61 a quarter since July 2025 |
| Conagra (CAG) | 9.5% | 4.7% | 66% | Cut 50% to $0.175 a quarter |
| Kraft Heinz (KHC) | 6.4% | 6.5% | 50% | Flat at $0.40 since May 2020 |
| Hershey (HSY) | 6.3% | n/a | 77% | Trailing payout 207% of earnings |
| Hormel (HRL) | 5.5% | 5.6% | 83% | Raised from $0.29 to $0.2925 |
| J.M. Smucker (SJM) | 3.3% | 3.4% | 30% | Raised from $1.10 to $1.12 |
| Mondelez (MDLZ) | 3.1% | n/a | 82% | No change reported in the sources read |
Run-rate yields use the current quarterly dividend from the news sources below, so they are only as current as those reports. Campbell's, which cut from $0.39 to $0.25 a quarter, is not in this site's stock data and is left out of the table.
What have food companies already done to their dividends?
| Company | Action | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Conagra | Cut the quarterly dividend from $0.35 to $0.175 (50%), now $0.70 a year | New payout is about 47% to 50% of fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.40 to $1.50; leverage is about 4.0 times against a 3.0 target |
| Campbell's | Cut from $0.39 to $0.25 (36%), now $1.00 a year | To speed debt reduction; the payout is now about 56% to 61% of fiscal 2027 EPS guidance |
| Kraft Heinz | Dividend flat at $0.40 a quarter since May 2020, after a cut from $0.625 in 2018 to 2019 | The company calls it a funded turnaround; first-half dividends were about 57% of free cash flow |
| General Mills | Flat at $0.61 for four declarations; 127 straight years of payments | Management says it is fully committed to the dividend |
| Hormel | A token raise from $0.29 to $0.2925 | The streak of 392 consecutive quarterly payments is intact |
| J.M. Smucker | Raised from $1.10 to $1.12 | Payout about 41% to 43% of fiscal 2027 EPS guidance, and leverage at its 3 times target |
Can General Mills afford its dividend?
General Mills' first quarter of fiscal 2027: free cash flow against dividends paid. The amber gap is the amount the dividend ran ahead of cash that quarter (seasonal, but the pattern to watch).
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend | $0.61 a quarter, $2.44 a year; yield about 7.1% at the weekly price | Company; this site |
| Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance | $3.00 to $3.20, against $3.55 in fiscal 2026 | Press coverage of the guidance |
| Payout against that guidance | About 76% to 81% | Derived |
| Fiscal 2026 free cash flow | $1.63 billion, down 29% | Press coverage |
| Net debt to EBITDA | Just above 4 times, with a 3 times target that management says takes at least a couple of years | Press coverage |
| Fiscal Q4 2026 charges | $1.75 billion of goodwill and brand impairments and a $1.03 billion non-cash loss on a planned Brazil sale | Press coverage |
The case for safety: management is "fully committed," the dividend has not been cut in 127 years, and the first quarter is seasonally weak for cash. The case against: a payout near 80% of earnings, leverage above 4 times, falling operating profit (guided down 8% to 13% in constant currency) and a stock-price drop that makes the yield look like a warning. A cut would not be certain, but it is the one with real arithmetic behind it.
Why do trailing dividend yields mislead after a cut?
A trailing yield adds up the last twelve months of payments, so a stock that has just halved its dividend still shows the old yield for up to a year. Conagra shows 9.5% on this site's screener; on its new rate of $0.70 a year, the yield is about 4.7% at the weekly price of $14.86. The reverse also applies: a stock that raised its dividend recently shows a yield below its real run-rate. Always compute the yield from the current quarterly payment times four.
| What to check | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| The current quarterly dividend times four, over price | Removes the distortion from cuts and raises |
| Dividend as a share of next year's guided EPS | Shows whether the payout is a reasonable share of profit that is still ahead |
| Free cash flow against dividends paid | Dividends are paid in cash, not earnings |
| Debt against the company's own leverage target | Missing a target is how dividends get redirected to debt |
| Whether the dividend has stopped growing | A frozen dividend is often the first signal |
How to find safe high-dividend stocks and how to calculate the dividend payout ratio cover the tests, and the Sustainable Dividend Screener applies them to every dividend payer this site tracks. Is Kraft Heinz overvalued? looks at the frozen-dividend case in detail.
Sources
- 24/7 Wall St.: 2 big food dividends were just cut, 3 more quietly stopped growing (September 5, 2026): Conagra, Campbell's, Kraft Heinz, General Mills and Hormel dividends
- 24/7 Wall St.: The grocery aisle dividend bundle (October 5, 2026): payouts, free cash flow, leverage, Smucker
- Refraim Perspectives: General Mills' dividend math doesn't add up (September 16, 2026): General Mills free cash flow and leverage estimate
- Motley Fool: This 7.2% yield is safe (May 17, 2026): General Mills background
- Sustainable Dividend Screener on this site: yields, free cash flow payout, debt to equity, October 23 to 24, 2026
The cut dates for Conagra and Campbell's are not given in the sources read, and no news source on Hershey was read. The Q1 fiscal 2027 cash figures and the payout arithmetic come from press coverage rather than the filings. Price-based yields use this site's weekly data, so they will differ from live quotes. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Food dividend FAQ
Which food dividends have been cut in 2026?
Conagra halved its quarterly dividend to $0.175 from $0.35 and Campbell's cut its to $0.25 from $0.39, according to press coverage.
Is General Mills' dividend safe?
Management says it is fully committed, but the dividend uses about 76% to 81% of guided fiscal 2027 earnings, net debt is above 4 times EBITDA and first-quarter free cash flow of $207 million trailed dividends of $331 million.
What is Conagra's real dividend yield?
About 4.7% on its new $0.70 annual dividend at the weekly price, not the 9.5% trailing yield shown by screens.
Why has Kraft Heinz not raised its dividend?
It has paid $0.40 a quarter since May 2020, after a cut in 2018 to 2019, while it invests in a turnaround and its operating income falls.
Which food company is raising its dividend?
J.M. Smucker raised it from $1.10 to $1.12 a quarter with a payout near 42% of guided earnings, and Hormel made a token raise.