Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) stock analysis
Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $25.09 it trades 54.6% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +54.6%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +7.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Kraft Heinz do?
Kraft Heinz makes packaged foods and condiments, including ketchup, cheese, processed meats, coffee, sauces and drinks, mostly sold in North American grocery stores.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Heinz
- Kraft
- Oscar Mayer
- Philadelphia
- Velveeta
- Lunchables
- Maxwell House
- Jell-O
- Kool-Aid
- Classico
What stands out about Kraft Heinz?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $25.09, KHC's free cash flow of $3.23 per share would have to shrink 11.0% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Weakest against peers: net margin. At −13.6% (peer median 2.2%) it ranks 10th of 11 among food products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.64; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Short interest is elevated. 10.8% of the float is sold short, 6.7 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 6.40%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Kraft Heinz's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Kraft Heinz undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +54.6%
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.67/5 27 analysts this month: 1 strong buy, 0 buy, 17 hold, 7 sell, 2 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 2.75 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.64 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −3.20 · accruals −12.1% of assets · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −2.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +7.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 6.4% + buybacks 1.5% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 8 years its split-adjusted share count fell 3%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew · but only 1% return on capital Operating profit $484M → $529M, capital needed $104B → $74B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 1% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.1×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 10 other food products stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Kraft Heinz compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 10 other food products stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 7.3% 12.9% ✓2nd of 11
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 4% −8% ✕9th of 11
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 2.2% −13.6% ✕10th of 11
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 0.7% −1.6% ✕8th of 11
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.81 0.53 ✓4th of 11
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 4.02% 6.40% ✓4th of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and KHC doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: KHC is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: KHC isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and KHC falls short of his bar. In its favor: KHC is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: KHC fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth.
- PEG < 1 n/a
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
From Berkshire Hathaway's SEC 13F-HR filing dated 2026-08-14, compared with its 2026-05-15 filing - its own disclosed position, separate from this site's Buffett-style checklist above. 13F filings cover only U.S.-listed equity holdings and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days.
Which of the 8 value filters does Kraft Heinz pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $29.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 0.82
- Price/Sales < 7 1.19
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Kraft Heinz's margin of safety?
+60% on 2026-10-07 → +55% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Kraft Heinz in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Kraft Heinz?
92,741,408 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Kraft Heinz? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +73%
- Short interest under 5% of float 10.8%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +18% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.55 → 0.51
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Kraft Heinz shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for KHC yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from KHC's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Kraft Heinz's 10-year financials show?
From KHC's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Kraft Heinz
What kind of company is Kraft Heinz?
Kraft Heinz makes packaged foods and condiments, including ketchup, cheese, processed meats, coffee, sauces and drinks, mostly sold in North American grocery stores. Brands and businesses it owns include Heinz, Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, Velveeta and Lunchables. This site groups it with Food Products stocks.
Is Kraft Heinz trading above or below its DCF value?
At $25.09, KHC trades 54.6% below this site's neutral DCF value of $55.20 per share, a margin of safety of +54.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Kraft Heinz pass?
KHC passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($29.6B), Price/Book < 8 (0.82) and Price/Sales < 7 (1.19). Trailing P/E < 25, PEG Ratio < 1.5, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How risky is Kraft Heinz's balance sheet?
KHC's Altman Z″-Score is 0.64, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.53, against a sector median of 0.81. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
Which well-known investors own Kraft Heinz?
Among the investors whose SEC 13F filings this site tracks, Prem Watsa (12.8% of the portfolio; added to the position), Warren Buffett (2.6% of the portfolio; unchanged) and Bill Gates (0.2% of the portfolio; unchanged) held KHC as of June 30, 2026. 13F filings cover only US-listed equities and arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so they lag the real portfolios. See Superinvestors.
When does Kraft Heinz report earnings next?
Kraft Heinz's next earnings report is expected on November 4, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.43 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +8.0%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Kraft Heinz's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 27, 2025, filed Feb 12, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Kraft Heinz Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.