Conagra Brands Inc (CAG) stock analysis
Conagra Brands Inc (CAG) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $15.07 it trades 58.9% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +58.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +8.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Conagra do?
Conagra makes packaged foods sold in grocery stores, especially frozen and shelf-stable products such as frozen meals, popcorn, cooking oils and snacks.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Birds Eye
- Healthy Choice
- Marie Callender's
- Banquet
- Slim Jim
- Orville Redenbacher's
- Duncan Hines
- Chef Boyardee
- Reddi-wip
- Hunt's
- PAM
What stands out about Conagra?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $15.07, CAG's free cash flow of $2.15 per share would have to shrink 13.4% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($7.0B); the other 3 pass and 4 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 14.3% (peer median 7.3%) it ranks 1st of 11 among food products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: return on equity. At −26% (peer median 4%) it ranks 11th of 11 among food products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.3% of the float is sold short, 2.7 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Conagra's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Conagra undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +58.9%
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.56/5 25 analysts this month: 0 strong buy, 1 buy, 14 hold, 8 sell, 2 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −3.53 · accruals −17.4% of assets · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count −0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to May 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +8.9% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 9.5% + buybacks 0.2% − stock comp 0.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 15%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $1.4B → $197M, capital needed $11B → $15B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 1% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.1×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 10 other food products stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Conagra compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 10 other food products stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 7.3% 14.3% ✓1st of 11
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 4% −26% ✕11th of 11
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 2.2% −16.9% ✕11th of 11
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 0.7% −1.8% ✕9th of 11
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.81 1.21 ✕9th of 11
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 4.02% 9.51% ✓1st of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CAG doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CAG is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: CAG isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CAG falls short of his bar. In its favor: CAG is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: CAG fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth.
- PEG < 1 n/a
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Conagra pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $7.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 1.10
- Price/Sales < 7 0.63
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +5.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Conagra's margin of safety?
+62% on 2026-10-07 → +59% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Conagra in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Conagra?
39,235,785 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Conagra? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +76%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +19% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.73 → 1.14
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Conagra shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for CAG yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CAG's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Conagra's 10-year financials show?
From CAG's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Conagra
What kind of company is Conagra?
Conagra makes packaged foods sold in grocery stores, especially frozen and shelf-stable products such as frozen meals, popcorn, cooking oils and snacks. Brands and businesses it owns include Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Banquet, Slim Jim and Orville Redenbacher's. This site groups it with Food Products stocks.
Is Conagra trading above or below its DCF value?
At $15.07, CAG trades 58.9% below this site's neutral DCF value of $36.71 per share, a margin of safety of +58.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Conagra pass?
CAG passes 3 of 8. It passes Price/Book < 8 (1.10), Price/Sales < 7 (0.63) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+5.9%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($7.0B). Trailing P/E < 25, PEG Ratio < 1.5, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Conagra's share price pricing in?
At $15.07, CAG's free cash flow of $2.15 per share would have to shrink 13.4% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How much cash does Conagra return to shareholders?
CAG's net shareholder yield is +8.9%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 9.5% + buybacks 0.2% − stock comp 0.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 15%. Its trailing dividend yield is 9.51%, paid out of 65% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (weak interest coverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How heavily is Conagra stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 8.3% of CAG's float was sold short (39,235,785 shares, 2.7 days to cover), down 2.6% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Conagra's 10-K annual report for the year ended May 31, 2026, filed Jul 15, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Conagra Brands Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Conagra Brands Inc (CAG) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.