Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) stock analysis
Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $21.36 it trades 14.4% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +14.4%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +5.3% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Hormel do?
Hormel makes and sells packaged meats and other foods, such as bacon, deli meats, canned chili, nuts and peanut butter, selling to grocery stores and food-service customers.
Brands and businesses it owns
- SPAM
- Hormel Black Label
- Jennie-O
- Planters
- Skippy
- Applegate
- Columbus
- Wholly Guacamole
What stands out about Hormel?
- The share price implies 4.1% yearly growth. At $21.36, HRL's free cash flow of $1.46 per share would have to grow 4.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 4 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($11.3B), Trailing P/E < 25 (33.11) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.99) and 1 more; the other 2 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Insiders have been buying. 1 open-market purchase was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $1.5 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
- Short interest is elevated. 7.8% of the float is sold short, 4.7 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 5.65%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Hormel's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Hormel undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +14.4% Corroborated: an insider bought once in the trailing 90 days (~$1.5M) - real, disclosed Form 4 buying near this price, not proof by itself.
- P/E vs. its own history 33.1x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 21.2x–27.4x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.47/5 15 analysts this month: 1 strong buy, 5 buy, 9 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.61 · accruals −2.7% of assets · 152% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.2% of revenue · share count +0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Oct 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +5.3% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.6% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 1%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $1.3B → $953M, capital needed $5.1B → $10B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 9% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 4.99 · Well above fair P/E 33.1× ÷ 6.6% a year of growth behind it. 411th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.8×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 4.99, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Flagged (4/6 filters failed)
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 10 other food products stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Hormel compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 10 other food products stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.1× 33.1× ✕6th of 8
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 7.3% 6.8% ✕8th of 11
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 4% 4% –6th of 11
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 2.2% 2.8% ✓4th of 11
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 0.7% 0.7% –6th of 11
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.81 0.36 ✓2nd of 11
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 4.02% 5.65% –5th of 11
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and HRL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: HRL carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: HRL isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and HRL falls short of his bar. In its favor: HRL pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: HRL isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 1 buy, ~$1.5M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Hormel pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $11.3B
- Trailing P/E < 25 33.11
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 4.99
- Price/Book < 8 1.45
- Price/Sales < 7 0.93
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -67.6%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Hormel's margin of safety?
+17% on 2026-10-07 → +14% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Hormel in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Hormel?
22,804,692 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Hormel? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +49%
- Short interest under 5% of float 7.8%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 2/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +11% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.06 → 0.36
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Hormel shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from HRL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Hormel's 10-year financials show?
From HRL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Hormel
What kind of company is Hormel?
Hormel makes and sells packaged meats and other foods, such as bacon, deli meats, canned chili, nuts and peanut butter, selling to grocery stores and food-service customers. Brands and businesses it owns include SPAM, Hormel Black Label, Jennie-O, Planters, Skippy and Applegate. This site groups it with Food Products stocks.
Is Hormel trading above or below its DCF value?
At $21.36, HRL trades 14.4% below this site's neutral DCF value of $24.96 per share, a margin of safety of +14.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Hormel pass?
HRL passes 2 of 8. It passes Price/Book < 8 (1.45) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.93). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($11.3B), Trailing P/E < 25 (33.11), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.99) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-67.6%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Hormel return to shareholders?
HRL's net shareholder yield is +5.3%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.6% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 1%. Its trailing dividend yield is 5.65%, paid out of 80% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (a risky earnings payout). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Are Hormel's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 1 open-market insider purchase of Hormel shares, worth about $1.5 million in total, was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
How heavily is Hormel stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 7.8% of HRL's float was sold short (22,804,692 shares, 4.7 days to cover), up 9.4% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Hormel's 10-K annual report for the year ended Oct 26, 2025, filed Dec 5, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Hormel Foods Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.