Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) stock analysis
Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $635.01 it trades 28.6% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -28.6%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Ulta Beauty do?
Ulta Beauty is the largest US beauty retailer, selling makeup, skincare, haircare and salon services in more than 1,400 stores and online, from mass-market to prestige brands.
What stands out about Ulta Beauty?
- The share price implies 14.4% yearly growth. At $635.01, ULTA's free cash flow of $28.91 per share would have to grow 14.4% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.66) and Price/Book < 8 (10.23); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -11% on Oct 7 to -29% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.13 (peer median 0.84) it ranks 2nd of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 5.7% of the float is sold short, 5.0 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Ulta Beauty's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Ulta Beauty undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -28.6%
- P/E vs. its own history 22.3x · near the expensive end Real range: 16.3x–25.3x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.97/5 35 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 16 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.84 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.38 · accruals −5.4% of assets · 118% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −4.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jan 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.2% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 3.3% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 29%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.34 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $765M → $1.6B, capital needed $1.9B → $2.1B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 74% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.66 · Above fair P/E 22.3× ÷ 13.4% a year of growth behind it. 188th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses price Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.66, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
How does Ulta Beauty compare with its peers?
5 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 22.3× –10th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 4.6% –10th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 45% –11th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 9.3% –8th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 11.2% ✓7th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 0.13 ✓2nd of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and ULTA doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: ULTA is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: ULTA runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and ULTA falls short of his bar. In its favor: ULTA is growing at the modest, GDP-ish pace typical of a slow grower, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: ULTA doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Ulta Beauty pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $27.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 22.35
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.66
- Price/Book < 8 10.23
- Price/Sales < 7 2.09
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +13.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Ulta Beauty's margin of safety?
-11% on 2026-10-07 → -29% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Ulta Beauty in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Ulta Beauty?
2,442,718 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Ulta Beauty? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +24%
- Short interest under 5% of float 5.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +41% off 52wk low
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Ulta Beauty shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from ULTA's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Ulta Beauty's 10-year financials show?
From ULTA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Ulta Beauty
What kind of company is Ulta Beauty?
Ulta Beauty is the largest US beauty retailer, selling makeup, skincare, haircare and salon services in more than 1,400 stores and online, from mass-market to prestige brands. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is Ulta Beauty trading above or below its DCF value?
At $635.01, ULTA trades 28.6% above this site's neutral DCF value of $493.68 per share, a margin of safety of −28.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Ulta Beauty pass?
ULTA passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($27.0B), Trailing P/E < 25 (22.35), Price/Sales < 7 (2.09) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+13.3%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.66) and Price/Book < 8 (10.23). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Ulta Beauty's share price pricing in?
At $635.01, ULTA's free cash flow of $28.91 per share would have to grow 14.4% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Does Ulta Beauty pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist ULTA clears 6 of 8 checks and leans no; it misses Pretax margin > 15% and Trading below intrinsic value (DCF). On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 3 of 5 and leans no, with Slow Grower / Cyclical as its Lynch category; it misses Dividend yield > 2.5% and P/E < 20. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
How heavily is Ulta Beauty stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 5.7% of ULTA's float was sold short (2,442,718 shares, 5.0 days to cover), down 0.0% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Ulta Beauty's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jan 31, 2026, filed Mar 26, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Ulta Beauty Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.