Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) stock analysis
Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $713.65 it trades 134.9% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -134.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +0.8% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Casey's do?
Casey's runs convenience stores and gas stations in small towns across the Midwest, and is also a large pizza seller.
What stands out about Casey's?
- The share price implies 30.2% yearly growth. At $713.65, CASY's free cash flow of $17.79 per share would have to grow 30.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (33.68) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.52); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: revenue growth. At 13.8% (peer median 7.7%) it ranks 6th of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.33% (peer median 1.77%) it ranks 15th of 15 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Priced at 33.7 times earnings. Price-to-book is 6.4 and return on equity 19.7%. See the value diligence check.
How has Casey's' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Casey's undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -134.9%
- P/E vs. its own history 33.7x · the middle Real range: 19.2x–43.0x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.04/5 27 analysts this month: 8 strong buy, 12 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.55 · accruals −7.7% of assets · 191% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Apr 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.8% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.3% + buybacks 0.8% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 3%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (under 8 years of filings)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.52 · Well above fair P/E 33.7× ÷ 13.4% a year of growth behind it. 289th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), cash back, price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (under 8 years of filings); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.5% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.52, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Casey's compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 33.7× ✕17th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 2.5% ✕16th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 20% ✕19th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 4.1% –14th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 13.8% ✓6th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 0.59 –10th of 21
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.77% 0.33% ✕15th of 15
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CASY doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CASY is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: CASY carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CASY falls short of his bar. In its favor: CASY is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, and isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple. Where it comes up short: CASY doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Casey's pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $26.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 33.68
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.52
- Price/Book < 8 6.36
- Price/Sales < 7 1.39
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +27.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Casey's' margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Casey's in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Casey's?
1,702,754 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Casey's? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -39%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.6%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.78 → 0.61
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Casey's shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CASY's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Casey's' 10-year financials show?
From CASY's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Casey's
What kind of company is Casey's?
Casey's runs convenience stores and gas stations in small towns across the Midwest, and is also a large pizza seller. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is Casey's trading above or below its DCF value?
At $713.65, CASY trades 134.9% above this site's neutral DCF value of $303.82 per share, a margin of safety of −134.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Casey's pass?
CASY passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($26.0B), Price/Book < 8 (6.36), Price/Sales < 7 (1.39) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+27.8%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (33.68) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.52). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Casey's' share price pricing in?
At $713.65, CASY's free cash flow of $17.79 per share would have to grow 30.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Does Casey's pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist CASY clears 4 of 8 checks and leans no; it misses Debt/Equity < 0.5, Pretax margin > 15% and Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) and 1 more. On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 2 of 5 and leans no, with Fast Grower as its Lynch category; it misses PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers), Debt/Equity < 0.5 and Price/FCF < 40. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
How much cash does Casey's return to shareholders?
CASY's net shareholder yield is +0.8%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.3% + buybacks 0.8% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 3%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.33%, paid out of 13% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Casey's's 10-K annual report for the year ended Apr 30, 2026, filed Jun 22, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Caseys General Stores Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.