Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) stock analysis
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $131.04 it trades 32.2% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +32.2%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +6.3% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Dollar Tree do?
Dollar Tree runs discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree name, selling household goods, snacks and seasonal items at low fixed prices.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Dollar Tree
- Family Dollar
What stands out about Dollar Tree?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $131.04, DLTR's free cash flow of $11.32 per share would have to shrink 1.5% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($23.5B); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 14.6× (peer median 23.2×) it ranks 1st of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- P/E at the bottom of its own range. DLTR trades at 14.6× trailing earnings; at the end of each of its last 3 fiscal years the multiple was between 18.9× and 22.6×.
- Balance sheet in the grey zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 2.26; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How has Dollar Tree's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Dollar Tree undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +32.2%
- P/E vs. its own history 14.6x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 18.9x–22.6x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.40/5 35 analysts this month: 3 strong buy, 12 buy, 16 hold, 4 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.26 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals −5.7% of assets · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −3.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jan 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +6.3% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 6.6% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 15%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew Operating profit $921M → $1.6B, capital needed $8.9B → $5.7B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 28% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.02 · About fair P/E 14.6× ÷ 14.3% a year of growth behind it. 93rd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.8×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
How does Dollar Tree compare with its peers?
5 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 14.6× ✓1st of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 8.6% ✓2nd of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 46% –10th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 8.0% –10th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 48.1% ✓2nd of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 0.86 –12th of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and DLTR doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: DLTR is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: DLTR and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and DLTR falls short of his bar. In its favor: DLTR isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: DLTR fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Dollar Tree pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $23.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 14.60
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.02
- Price/Book < 8 6.87
- Price/Sales < 7 1.17
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +197.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Dollar Tree's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Dollar Tree in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Dollar Tree?
7,240,843 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Dollar Tree? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +60%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.9%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +50% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 1.17 → 0.65
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Dollar Tree shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from DLTR's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Dollar Tree's 10-year financials show?
From DLTR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Dollar Tree
What kind of company is Dollar Tree?
Dollar Tree runs discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree name, selling household goods, snacks and seasonal items at low fixed prices. Brands and businesses it owns include Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is Dollar Tree trading above or below its DCF value?
At $131.04, DLTR trades 32.2% below this site's neutral DCF value of $193.34 per share, a margin of safety of +32.2%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Dollar Tree pass?
DLTR passes 5 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (14.60), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.02), Price/Book < 8 (6.87), Price/Sales < 7 (1.17) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+197.3%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($23.5B). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How fast has Dollar Tree grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2026, DLTR's revenue fell from $20.7 billion to $19.4 billion, 0.7% a year. Net income went from $896 million to $1.3 billion, and its net profit margin from 4.3% to 6.6%. Earnings per share went from $3.78 to $6.22 on today's share count, 5.7% a year. In fiscal 2026 it produced $1.1 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 5.4% of its revenue. All figures are from DLTR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
How risky is Dollar Tree's balance sheet?
DLTR's Altman Z″-Score is 2.26, which falls in the grey zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.86. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
Is Dollar Tree's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
DLTR trades at 14.6× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 3 fiscal years its P/E was between 18.9× and 22.6× (average 20.8×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Dollar Tree's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jan 31, 2026, filed Mar 16, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Dollar Tree Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.