Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) stock analysis
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $34.73 it trades 138.3% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -138.3%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Tractor Supply do?
Tractor Supply runs rural lifestyle stores that sell farm, pet, animal and home improvement products to customers in small towns.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Tractor Supply
- Petsense
- Allivet
- Orscheln
What stands out about Tractor Supply?
- The share price implies 30.6% yearly growth. At $34.73, TSCO's free cash flow of $0.85 per share would have to grow 30.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($17.0B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.43) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-14.9%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Insiders have been buying. 1 open-market purchase was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $9.1 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.3% of the float is sold short, 4.4 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 2.91%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Tractor Supply's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Tractor Supply undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -138.3%
- P/E vs. its own history 16.8x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 21.1x–26.9x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.78/5 37 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 11 buy, 17 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.00 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals −5.2% of assets · 133% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −1.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.9% + buybacks 2.1% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 28%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $3.00 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like Operating profit $694M → $1.5B, capital needed $1.8B → $4.2B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 35% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.43 · Well above fair P/E 16.8× ÷ 4.9% a year of growth behind it. 362nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses price Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.43, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Tractor Supply compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 16.8× ✓4th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 2.5% ✕17th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 39% –14th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 6.4% –12th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 4.0% ✕15th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 0.84 –11th of 21
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.77% 2.91% ✓4th of 15
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and TSCO doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: TSCO is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: TSCO carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and TSCO falls short of his bar. In its favor: TSCO pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, and is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it. Where it comes up short: TSCO isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 1 buy, ~$9.1M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Tractor Supply pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $17.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 16.83
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.43
- Price/Book < 8 6.47
- Price/Sales < 7 1.08
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -14.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Tractor Supply's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Tractor Supply in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Tractor Supply?
43,233,684 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Tractor Supply? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -41%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +19% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.18 → 0.68
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Tractor Supply shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from TSCO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Tractor Supply's 10-year financials show?
From TSCO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Tractor Supply
What kind of company is Tractor Supply?
Tractor Supply runs rural lifestyle stores that sell farm, pet, animal and home improvement products to customers in small towns. Brands and businesses it owns include Tractor Supply, Petsense, Allivet and Orscheln. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is Tractor Supply trading above or below its DCF value?
At $34.73, TSCO trades 138.3% above this site's neutral DCF value of $14.57 per share, a margin of safety of −138.3%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Tractor Supply pass?
TSCO passes 3 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (16.83), Price/Book < 8 (6.47) and Price/Sales < 7 (1.08). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($17.0B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.43) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-14.9%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Tractor Supply return to shareholders?
TSCO's net shareholder yield is +4.6%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.9% + buybacks 2.1% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 28%. Its trailing dividend yield is 2.91%, paid out of 110% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (a high cash-flow payout). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Are Tractor Supply's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 1 open-market insider purchase of Tractor Supply shares, worth about $9.1 million in total, was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
How heavily is Tractor Supply stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 8.3% of TSCO's float was sold short (43,233,684 shares, 4.4 days to cover), up 9.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Tractor Supply's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 27, 2025, filed Feb 19, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Tractor Supply Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.