Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) stock analysis
Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $138.98 it trades 28.0% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +28.0%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +7.0% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Constellation Brands do?
Constellation Brands sells beer, wine and spirits. Its biggest business is imported Mexican beer, for which it holds the US rights to Corona and Modelo, and it also sells premium wines.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Corona
- Modelo
- Pacifico
- Robert Mondavi
What stands out about Constellation Brands?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $138.98, STZ's free cash flow of $11.31 per share would have to shrink 0.1% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($22.6B) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.85); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +38% on Oct 7 to +28% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: revenue growth. At −4.3% (peer median 6.4%) it ranks 6th of 6 among beverages stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 6.5% of the float is sold short, 4.5 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Constellation Brands' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Constellation Brands undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +28.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 11.7x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 16.4x–26.4x over 2 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.66/5 29 analysts this month: 3 strong buy, 15 buy, 9 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.75 · accruals −4.5% of assets · 258% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.7% of revenue. From the latest 10-K (year to Feb 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +7.0% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 3.2% + buybacks 4.1% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 24%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $2.4B → $2.1B, capital needed $18B → $18B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 11% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.85 · Well above fair P/E 11.7× ÷ 3.1% a year of growth behind it. 385th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.85, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 5 other beverages stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Constellation Brands compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 5 other beverages stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.6× 11.7× ✓1st of 6
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.9% 8.1% ✓1st of 6
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 24% –4th of 6
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 19.7% 20.9% –3rd of 6
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.4% −4.3% ✕6th of 6
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.13 1.20 –4th of 6
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.11% 3.13% ✓2nd of 5
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and STZ doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: STZ is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: STZ and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and STZ falls short of his bar. In its favor: STZ isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: STZ doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
From Berkshire Hathaway's SEC 13F-HR filing dated 2026-08-14, compared with its 2026-05-15 filing - its own disclosed position, separate from this site's Buffett-style checklist above. 13F filings cover only U.S.-listed equity holdings and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days.
Which of the 8 value filters does Constellation Brands pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $22.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 11.75
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.85
- Price/Book < 8 2.63
- Price/Sales < 7 2.46
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +25.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Constellation Brands' margin of safety?
+38% on 2026-10-07 → +28% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Constellation Brands in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Constellation Brands?
9,633,960 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Constellation Brands? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +57%
- Short interest under 5% of float 6.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +23% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 1.25 → 1.27
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Constellation Brands shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from STZ's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Constellation Brands' 10-year financials show?
From STZ's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Constellation Brands
What kind of company is Constellation Brands?
Constellation Brands sells beer, wine and spirits. Its biggest business is imported Mexican beer, for which it holds the US rights to Corona and Modelo, and it also sells premium wines. Brands and businesses it owns include Corona, Modelo, Pacifico and Robert Mondavi. This site groups it with Beverages stocks.
Is Constellation Brands trading above or below its DCF value?
At $138.98, STZ trades 28.0% below this site's neutral DCF value of $193.08 per share, a margin of safety of +28.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Constellation Brands pass?
STZ passes 4 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (11.75), Price/Book < 8 (2.63), Price/Sales < 7 (2.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+25.2%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($22.6B) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.85). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Constellation Brands' share price pricing in?
At $138.98, STZ's free cash flow of $11.31 per share would have to shrink 0.1% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Is Constellation Brands's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
STZ trades at 11.7× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 2 fiscal years its P/E was between 16.4× and 26.4× (average 21.4×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
How heavily is Constellation Brands stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 6.5% of STZ's float was sold short (9,633,960 shares, 4.5 days to cover), up 13.1% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Constellation Brands's 10-K annual report for the year ended Feb 28, 2026, filed Apr 22, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Constellation Brands Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.