PepsiCo Inc (PEP) stock analysis
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $138.83 it trades 1.5% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -1.5%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does PepsiCo do?
PepsiCo makes and sells snacks and beverages worldwide. Snacks and foods account for more than half of its revenue, with Pepsi drinks, Gatorade and other beverages making up the rest.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Pepsi
- Mountain Dew
- Gatorade
- Lay's
- Doritos
- Cheetos
- Tostitos
- Quaker
- Rockstar Energy
What stands out about PepsiCo?
- The share price implies 8.4% yearly growth. At $138.83, PEP's free cash flow of $8.01 per share would have to grow 8.4% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for about the same growth as the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.05) and Price/Book < 8 (8.46); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 2.33 (peer median 1.13) it ranks 6th of 6 among beverages stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Insiders have been buying. 4 open-market purchases were reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $201.0 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 4.18%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has PepsiCo's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is PepsiCo undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -1.5%
- P/E vs. its own history 17.3x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 22.0x–31.3x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.38/5 29 analysts this month: 2 strong buy, 8 buy, 18 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.43 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.88 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.54 · accruals −3.7% of assets · 141% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −0.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.1% + buybacks 0.5% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 14%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $5.51 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry Operating profit $10B → $12B, capital needed $29B → $40B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 30% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.05 · Well above fair P/E 17.3× ÷ 5.7% a year of growth behind it. 344th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.05, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 5 other beverages stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does PepsiCo compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 5 other beverages stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.6× 17.3× ✓2nd of 6
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.9% 5.8% –3rd of 6
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 51% ✓1st of 6
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 19.7% 11.1% ✕5th of 6
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.4% 6.4% –4th of 6
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.13 2.33 ✕6th of 6
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.11% 4.18% ✓1st of 5
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PEP doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: PEP is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: PEP carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PEP falls short of his bar. In its favor: PEP isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: PEP doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 4 buys, ~$201.0M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does PepsiCo pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $188.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 17.30
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.05
- Price/Book < 8 8.46
- Price/Sales < 7 1.92
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +17.5%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is PepsiCo's margin of safety?
-3% on 2026-10-07 → -1% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is PepsiCo in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in PepsiCo?
23,293,009 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with PepsiCo? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +40%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +12% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 3.29 → 2.41
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have PepsiCo shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PEP's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do PepsiCo's 10-year financials show?
From PEP's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about PepsiCo
What kind of company is PepsiCo?
PepsiCo makes and sells snacks and beverages worldwide. Snacks and foods account for more than half of its revenue, with Pepsi drinks, Gatorade and other beverages making up the rest. Brands and businesses it owns include Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Lay's, Doritos and Cheetos. This site groups it with Beverages stocks.
Is PepsiCo trading above or below its DCF value?
At $138.83, PEP trades 1.5% above this site's neutral DCF value of $136.81 per share, a margin of safety of −1.5%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does PepsiCo pass?
PEP passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($188.5B), Trailing P/E < 25 (17.30), Price/Sales < 7 (1.92) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+17.5%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.05) and Price/Book < 8 (8.46). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does PepsiCo return to shareholders?
PEP's net shareholder yield is +4.4%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.1% + buybacks 0.5% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 14%. Its trailing dividend yield is 4.18%, paid out of 72% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (high leverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Is PepsiCo's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
PEP trades at 17.3× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 22.0× and 31.3× (average 26.3×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Are PepsiCo's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 4 open-market insider purchases of PepsiCo shares, worth about $201.0 million in total, were reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: PepsiCo's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 27, 2025, filed Feb 3, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this PepsiCo Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on PepsiCo Inc (PEP) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.