Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) stock analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $35.19 it trades 43.4% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -43.4%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Keurig Dr Pepper do?
Keurig Dr Pepper sells soft drinks and coffee: bottled and canned drinks such as Dr Pepper, 7UP and Canada Dry, plus Keurig single-serve coffee machines and K-Cup pods.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Dr Pepper
- Keurig
- Canada Dry
- Snapple
- Mott's
- A&W
- Hawaiian Punch
- Core
What stands out about Keurig Dr Pepper?
- The share price implies 17.1% yearly growth. At $35.19, KDP's free cash flow of $1.44 per share would have to grow 17.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (33.71), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.17) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-74.1%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -26% on Oct 7 to -43% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: return on equity. At 5% (peer median 24%) it ranks 6th of 6 among beverages stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 5.7% of the float is sold short, 6.5 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Keurig Dr Pepper's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -43.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 33.7x · near the expensive end Real range: 18.4x–35.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.88/5 24 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 11 buy, 8 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 1.30 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.36 · accruals 0.2% of assets · 97% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count −1.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.6% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 7 years its split-adjusted share count rose 24%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $13.38 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 7% return on capital Operating profit $1.4B → $3.1B, capital needed $21B → $45B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 7% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.17 · Well above fair P/E 33.7× ÷ 10.6% a year of growth behind it. 351st lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 7% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.17, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 5 other beverages stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Keurig Dr Pepper compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 5 other beverages stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.6× 33.7× ✕5th of 6
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.9% 4.1% –4th of 6
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 5% ✕6th of 6
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 19.7% 7.1% ✕6th of 6
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.4% 27.5% ✓1st of 6
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.13 1.05 –3rd of 6
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.11% 2.71% ✕5th of 5
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and KDP doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: KDP has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: KDP isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and KDP falls short of his bar. In its favor: KDP pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: KDP isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Keurig Dr Pepper pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $48.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 33.71
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.17
- Price/Book < 8 1.63
- Price/Sales < 7 2.39
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -74.1%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Keurig Dr Pepper's margin of safety?
-26% on 2026-10-07 → -43% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Keurig Dr Pepper in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Keurig Dr Pepper?
73,547,571 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Keurig Dr Pepper? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +15%
- Short interest under 5% of float 5.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 2.09 → 0.55
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Keurig Dr Pepper shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from KDP's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Keurig Dr Pepper's 10-year financials show?
From KDP's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Keurig Dr Pepper
What kind of company is Keurig Dr Pepper?
Keurig Dr Pepper sells soft drinks and coffee: bottled and canned drinks such as Dr Pepper, 7UP and Canada Dry, plus Keurig single-serve coffee machines and K-Cup pods. Brands and businesses it owns include Dr Pepper, Keurig, Canada Dry, Snapple, Mott's and A&W. This site groups it with Beverages stocks.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper trading above or below its DCF value?
At $35.19, KDP trades 43.4% above this site's neutral DCF value of $24.55 per share, a margin of safety of −43.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Keurig Dr Pepper pass?
KDP passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($48.1B), Price/Book < 8 (1.63) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.39). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (33.71), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.17) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-74.1%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is Keurig Dr Pepper trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $35.19, KDP is at its 52-week high of $35.10, 38.7% above its 52-week low of $25.31.
When does Keurig Dr Pepper report earnings next?
Keurig Dr Pepper's next earnings report is expected on November 3, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.62 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +2.3%.
How heavily is Keurig Dr Pepper stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 5.7% of KDP's float was sold short (73,547,571 shares, 6.5 days to cover), down 6.9% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Keurig Dr Pepper's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 24, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Keurig Dr Pepper Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.