Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) stock analysis
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $239.90 it trades 81.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -81.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.3% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Steel Dynamics do?
Steel Dynamics makes steel in recycling mills and sells flat-rolled steel, long products and metal-based services, plus aluminum.
What stands out about Steel Dynamics?
- The share price implies 23.2% yearly growth. At $239.90, STLD's free cash flow of $7.76 per share would have to grow 23.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. STLD passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: revenue growth. At 26.0% (peer median 6.2%) it ranks 1st of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.88% (peer median 1.75%) it ranks 16th of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Priced at 17.3 times earnings. Price-to-book is 3.4 and return on equity 21.0%. See the value diligence check.
How has Steel Dynamics' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Steel Dynamics undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -81.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 17.3x · near the expensive end Real range: 4.0x–21.2x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.77/5 22 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 10 buy, 7 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 6.71 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.39 · accruals −1.7% of assets · 132% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −5.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.3% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 2.7% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 37%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $6.45 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 19% return on capital Operating profit $1.2B → $2.2B, capital needed $5.1B → $12B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 19% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.64 · Under fair P/E 17.3× ÷ 27.0% a year of growth behind it. 54th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Steel Dynamics compare with its peers?
5 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 31.4× 17.3× ✓4th of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 3.2% –10th of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% 21% ✓5th of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% 8.8% –8th of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% 26.0% ✓1st of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.43 –6th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 0.88% ✕16th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and STLD doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: STLD is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: STLD runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and STLD falls short of his bar. In its favor: STLD clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: STLD is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Steel Dynamics pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $33.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 17.27
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.64
- Price/Book < 8 3.44
- Price/Sales < 7 1.52
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +92.5%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +0.9%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) +8.3%
What is Steel Dynamics' margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Steel Dynamics in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Steel Dynamics?
4,017,745 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Steel Dynamics? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -7%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.0%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +69% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.81 → 0.47
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Steel Dynamics shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from STLD's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Steel Dynamics' 10-year financials show?
From STLD's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Steel Dynamics
What kind of company is Steel Dynamics?
Steel Dynamics makes steel in recycling mills and sells flat-rolled steel, long products and metal-based services, plus aluminum. This site groups it with Metals & Mining stocks.
Is Steel Dynamics trading above or below its DCF value?
At $239.90, STLD trades 81.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $132.50 per share, a margin of safety of −81.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Steel Dynamics pass?
STLD passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($33.8B), Trailing P/E < 25 (17.27), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.64), Price/Book < 8 (3.44), Price/Sales < 7 (1.52), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+92.5%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+0.9%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+8.3%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Steel Dynamics' share price pricing in?
At $239.90, STLD's free cash flow of $7.76 per share would have to grow 23.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Does Steel Dynamics pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist STLD clears 5 of 8 checks and leans no; it misses Pretax margin > 15%, Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) and Price vs. owner earnings < 25x. On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 4 of 5 and leans no, with Fast Grower as its Lynch category; it misses EPS growth 20%-50%. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
How much cash does Steel Dynamics return to shareholders?
STLD's net shareholder yield is +3.3%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 2.7% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 37%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.88%, paid out of 27% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Steel Dynamics's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Steel Dynamics Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.