Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD) stock analysis
Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 0 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $308.22 it trades 1173.6% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -1173.6%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Air Products do?
Air Products sells industrial gases such as hydrogen, oxygen and nitrogen to refineries, chemical plants and electronics makers, and is building large clean-hydrogen projects.
What stands out about Air Products?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $308.22, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. APD passes 3 of the 8 value filters and 5 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -1080% on Oct 7 to -1174% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 0.5% (peer median 4.3%) it ranks 16th of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 2.37%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Air Products' share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Air Products undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -1173.6%
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.83/5 29 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 14 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.85 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.28 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.87 · accruals −9.1% of assets · 176% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count 0.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.4% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 2%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $34.16 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 9% return on capital Operating profit $1.6B → $2.0B, capital needed $11B → $24B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 9% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 1 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 0 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Air Products compare with its peers?
1 of 6 measure sits above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 4 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 0.5% ✕16th of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% −0% ✕13th of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% −0.4% ✕13th of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% 4.5% –11th of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 1.27 ✕14th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 2.37% –6th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and APD doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: APD and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: APD isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and APD falls short of his bar. Where it comes up short: APD fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 n/a
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Air Products pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $67.3B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 4.85
- Price/Sales < 7 5.34
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Air Products' margin of safety?
-1080% on 2026-10-07 → -1174% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Air Products in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Air Products?
5,072,833 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily. This period's change looks like a stock split, not a real shift in short positions - share counts aren't split-adjusted at the source.
What could go wrong with Air Products? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -653%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +33% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.60 → 1.18
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Air Products shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for APD yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from APD's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Air Products' 10-year financials show?
From APD's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Air Products
What kind of company is Air Products?
Air Products sells industrial gases such as hydrogen, oxygen and nitrogen to refineries, chemical plants and electronics makers, and is building large clean-hydrogen projects. This site groups it with Chemicals stocks.
Is Air Products trading above or below its DCF value?
At $308.22, APD trades 1173.6% above this site's neutral DCF value of $24.20 per share, a margin of safety of −1173.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Air Products pass?
APD passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($67.3B), Price/Book < 8 (4.85) and Price/Sales < 7 (5.34). Trailing P/E < 25, PEG Ratio < 1.5, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Air Products return to shareholders?
APD's net shareholder yield is +2.2%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.4% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 2%. Its trailing dividend yield is 2.37%, paid out of 507% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (a high cash-flow payout). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where is Air Products trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $308.22, APD trades 33.1% above its 52-week low of $230.76 and 1.9% below its 52-week high of $314.19.
When does Air Products report earnings next?
Air Products's next earnings report is expected on November 4, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.65 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +2.2%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Air Products's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 30, 2025, filed Nov 20, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Air Products and Chemicals Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.