Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock analysis
Newmont Corporation (NEM) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 5 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $114.11 it trades 28.6% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +28.6%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +2.8% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Newmont do?
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, also mining copper, silver, zinc and lead at sites across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. Gold and copper prices drive its results.
What stands out about Newmont?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $114.11, NEM's free cash flow of $9.35 per share would have to shrink 0.3% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. NEM passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from +26% on Oct 7 to +29% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 33.4% (peer median 7.8%) it ranks 1st of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −5.7% of assets · 245% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +14.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Newmont's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Newmont undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +28.6%
- P/E vs. its own history 13.8x · near the cheap end Real range: 12.8x–42.6x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.23/5 31 analysts this month: 10 strong buy, 18 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.16 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −5.7% of assets · 245% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +14.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.8% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.9% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 120%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $6.13 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 12% return on capital Operating profit $530M → $4.6B, capital needed $13B → $38B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 12% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.90 · About fair P/E 13.8× ÷ 15.3% a year of growth behind it. 78th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 12% return on capital); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 6 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 6 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Newmont compare with its peers?
6 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 6 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 31.4× 13.8× ✓2nd of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 8.2% ✓5th of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% 25% ✓3rd of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% 33.4% ✓1st of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% 25.2% ✓2nd of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.16 ✓1st of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 0.93% ✕13th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NEM clears it. In its favor: NEM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: NEM and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NEM clears his bar. In its favor: NEM clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Newmont pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $118.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 13.81
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.90
- Price/Book < 8 3.37
- Price/Sales < 7 4.61
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +11.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) -6.3%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) +1.5%
What is Newmont's margin of safety?
+26% on 2026-10-07 → +29% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Newmont in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Newmont?
16,020,380 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Newmont? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +58%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +43% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.43 → 0.15
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Newmont shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NEM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Newmont's 10-year financials show?
From NEM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Newmont
What kind of company is Newmont?
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, also mining copper, silver, zinc and lead at sites across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea. Gold and copper prices drive its results. This site groups it with Metals & Mining stocks.
Is Newmont trading above or below its DCF value?
At $114.11, NEM trades 28.6% below this site's neutral DCF value of $159.71 per share, a margin of safety of +28.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Newmont pass?
NEM passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($118.8B), Trailing P/E < 25 (13.81), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.90), Price/Book < 8 (3.37), Price/Sales < 7 (4.61), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+11.3%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (-6.3%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+1.5%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Newmont's share price pricing in?
At $114.11, NEM's free cash flow of $9.35 per share would have to shrink 0.3% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Are Newmont's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates NEM Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.66 · accruals −5.7% of assets · 245% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +14.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does Newmont return to shareholders?
NEM's net shareholder yield is +2.8%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.9% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 120%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.93%, paid out of 7% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Newmont's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 19, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Newmont Corporation analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Newmont Corporation (NEM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.