Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) stock analysis
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $64.59 it trades 121.9% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -121.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +0.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Freeport-McMoRan do?
Freeport-McMoRan mines copper, gold and molybdenum, with large operations in the US, Indonesia (Grasberg) and Peru. Copper is most of its profit, so its results follow copper prices.
What stands out about Freeport-McMoRan?
- The share price implies 28.6% yearly growth. At $64.59, FCX's free cash flow of $1.70 per share would have to grow 28.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (31.77); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -148% on Oct 7 to -122% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: revenue growth. At −24.2% (peer median 6.2%) it ranks 16th of 16 among materials stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 0.93%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Freeport-McMoRan's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Freeport-McMoRan undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -121.9%
- P/E vs. its own history 31.8x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 11.5x–17.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.87/5 30 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 18 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.90 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.89 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch Beneish M-score −1.88 (grey zone), mostly from receivables growing faster than sales · accruals −2.6% of assets · 147% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count 0.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 0.1% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 51%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $3.22 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like · but only 15% return on capital Operating profit $1.9B → $6.5B, capital needed $28B → $43B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 15% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.20 · Above fair P/E 31.8× ÷ 26.6% a year of growth behind it. 120th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 15% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.9% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 15 other materials stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Freeport-McMoRan compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 15 other materials stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 31.4× 31.8× –7th of 12
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.3% 2.6% –11th of 16
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 13% 15% –8th of 16
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.8% 11.4% ✓5th of 16
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 6.2% −24.2% ✕16th of 16
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.47 –7th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 0.93% ✕14th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and FCX doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: FCX is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: FCX is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and FCX falls short of his bar. In its favor: FCX isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: FCX doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Freeport-McMoRan pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $93.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 31.77
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.20
- Price/Book < 8 4.65
- Price/Sales < 7 3.62
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +27.5%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Freeport-McMoRan's margin of safety?
-148% on 2026-10-07 → -122% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Freeport-McMoRan in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Freeport-McMoRan?
25,136,099 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Freeport-McMoRan? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -31%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.8%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +67% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 2.65 → 0.50
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Freeport-McMoRan shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from FCX's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Freeport-McMoRan's 10-year financials show?
From FCX's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Freeport-McMoRan
What kind of company is Freeport-McMoRan?
Freeport-McMoRan mines copper, gold and molybdenum, with large operations in the US, Indonesia (Grasberg) and Peru. Copper is most of its profit, so its results follow copper prices. This site groups it with Metals & Mining stocks.
Is Freeport-McMoRan trading above or below its DCF value?
At $64.59, FCX trades 121.9% above this site's neutral DCF value of $29.10 per share, a margin of safety of −121.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Freeport-McMoRan pass?
FCX passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($93.6B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.20), Price/Book < 8 (4.65), Price/Sales < 7 (3.62) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+27.5%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (31.77). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Freeport-McMoRan's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates FCX Strong · 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.88 (grey zone), mostly from receivables growing faster than sales · accruals −2.6% of assets · 147% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count 0.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does Freeport-McMoRan return to shareholders?
FCX's net shareholder yield is +0.9%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 0.1% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 51%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.93%, paid out of 35% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (declining revenue). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does Freeport-McMoRan report earnings next?
Freeport-McMoRan's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.80 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +32.7%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Freeport-McMoRan's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 13, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Freeport-McMoRan Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.