Philip Morris International Inc (PM) stock analysis
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $201.74 it trades 36.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -36.0%). Its earnings quality rates Strong. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Philip Morris International do?
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes outside the US and is moving toward smoke-free products such as the IQOS heated-tobacco device and ZYN nicotine pouches. In the US, Marlboro belongs to Altria, a separate company.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Marlboro (outside the US)
- IQOS
- ZYN
- L&M
- Parliament
- Chesterfield
What stands out about Philip Morris International?
- The share price implies 15.8% yearly growth. At $201.74, PM's free cash flow of $8.69 per share would have to grow 15.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 4 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (29.21), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.07) and Price/Book < 8 (2792.98) and 1 more; the other 2 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -29% on Oct 7 to -36% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 186.08 (peer median 0.54) it ranks 19th of 19 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 2.88%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Philip Morris International's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Philip Morris International undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -36.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 29.2x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 16.3x–26.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.08/5 26 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 10 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.07 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 2.90 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.38 · accruals −1.4% of assets · 128% of profit arrived as cash · share count +0.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 2.8% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.8% + buybacks 0.0%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 12%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $7.90 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry Operating profit $11B → $13B, capital needed $17B → $33B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 41% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 3.07 · Well above fair P/E 29.2× ÷ 9.5% a year of growth behind it. 346th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back (n/a), price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 3.07, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Philip Morris International compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 29.2× ✕15th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 4.3% ✕16th of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 575% ✓2nd of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 24.8% ✓2nd of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% 7.9% ✓4th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 186.08 ✕19th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 2.88% –6th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PM doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: PM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: PM carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PM falls short of his bar. In its favor: PM is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: PM doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Philip Morris International pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $312.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 29.21
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 3.07
- Price/Book < 8 2792.98
- Price/Sales < 7 7.25
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -4.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Philip Morris International's margin of safety?
-29% on 2026-10-07 → -36% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Philip Morris International in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Philip Morris International?
17,747,343 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Philip Morris International? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +20%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 2/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Philip Morris International shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Philip Morris International's 10-year financials show?
From PM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Philip Morris International
What kind of company is Philip Morris International?
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes outside the US and is moving toward smoke-free products such as the IQOS heated-tobacco device and ZYN nicotine pouches. In the US, Marlboro belongs to Altria, a separate company. Brands and businesses it owns include Marlboro (outside the US), IQOS, ZYN, L&M, Parliament and Chesterfield. This site groups it with Tobacco stocks.
Is Philip Morris International trading above or below its DCF value?
At $201.74, PM trades 36.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $148.39 per share, a margin of safety of −36.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Philip Morris International pass?
PM passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($312.8B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-4.9%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (29.21), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (3.07), Price/Book < 8 (2792.98) and Price/Sales < 7 (7.25). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Philip Morris International return to shareholders?
PM's gross shareholder yield is 2.8%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.8% + buybacks 0.0%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 12%. Its trailing dividend yield is 2.88%, paid out of 67% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (high leverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where is Philip Morris International trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $201.74, PM trades 38.9% above its 52-week low of $144.33 and 1.9% below its 52-week high of $205.58.
Is Philip Morris International's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
PM trades at 29.2× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 16.3× and 26.6× (average 20.2×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Philip Morris International's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 6, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Philip Morris International Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Philip Morris International Inc (PM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.