Altria Group Inc (MO) stock analysis
Altria Group Inc (MO) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $76.07 it trades 19.1% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +19.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Altria do?
Altria sells cigarettes and other tobacco products in the US only, led by Marlboro, and also owns smokeless-tobacco and nicotine-pouch brands. Marlboro outside the US belongs to Philip Morris International.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Marlboro (US)
- Copenhagen
- Skoal
- Black & Mild
- on!
- NJOY
What stands out about Altria?
- The share price implies 2.8% yearly growth. At $76.07, MO's free cash flow of $5.51 per share would have to grow 2.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.04) and Price/Book < 8 (38.63); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +27% on Oct 7 to +19% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: net margin. At 34.0% (peer median 11.8%) it ranks 1st of 19 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Insiders have been buying. 1 open-market purchase was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $7.8 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
How has Altria's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Altria undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +19.1% Corroborated: an insider bought once in the trailing 90 days (~$7.8M) - real, disclosed Form 4 buying near this price, not proof by itself.
- P/E vs. its own history 15.8x · near the cheap end Real range: 8.0x–35.4x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.52/5 23 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 6 buy, 9 hold, 2 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.58 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.50 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.36 · accruals −6.7% of assets · 104% of profit arrived as cash · share count −2.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 6.3% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.5% + buybacks 0.8%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 18%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) None needed · capital fell while profit grew Operating profit $9.2B → $11B, capital needed $15B → $14B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 76% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 4.04 · Well above fair P/E 15.8× ÷ 3.9% a year of growth behind it. 390th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back (n/a), price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 4.04, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Altria compare with its peers?
5 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 15.8× –8th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 7.2% –8th of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 150% ✓5th of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 34.0% ✓1st of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% −0.6% –12th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 8.67 ✕16th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 5.61% ✓2nd of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MO clears it. In its favor: MO is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: MO carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MO falls short of his bar. In its favor: MO pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: MO isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 1 buy, ~$7.8M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Altria pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $125.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 15.78
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 4.04
- Price/Book < 8 38.63
- Price/Sales < 7 5.36
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -2.6%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Altria's margin of safety?
+27% on 2026-10-07 → +19% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Altria in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Altria?
37,631,259 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Altria? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +52%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.09 → 10.38
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Altria shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Altria's 10-year financials show?
From MO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Altria
What kind of company is Altria?
Altria sells cigarettes and other tobacco products in the US only, led by Marlboro, and also owns smokeless-tobacco and nicotine-pouch brands. Marlboro outside the US belongs to Philip Morris International. Brands and businesses it owns include Marlboro (US), Copenhagen, Skoal, Black & Mild, on! and NJOY. This site groups it with Tobacco stocks.
Is Altria trading above or below its DCF value?
At $76.07, MO trades 19.1% below this site's neutral DCF value of $94.08 per share, a margin of safety of +19.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Altria pass?
MO passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($125.8B), Trailing P/E < 25 (15.78), Price/Sales < 7 (5.36) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-2.6%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.04) and Price/Book < 8 (38.63). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How fast has Altria grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, MO's revenue fell from $25.7 billion to $23.3 billion, 1.1% a year. Net income went from $14.2 billion to $6.9 billion, and its net profit margin from 55.3% to 29.8%. Earnings per share went from $7.28 to $4.12 on today's share count, -6.1% a year. In fiscal 2025 it produced $9.1 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 39.0% of its revenue. All figures are from MO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Are Altria's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 1 open-market insider purchase of Altria shares, worth about $7.8 million in total, was reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
When does Altria report earnings next?
Altria's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.56 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of −2.0%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Altria's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 25, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Altria Group Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Altria Group Inc (MO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.