Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) stock analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $33.72 it trades 79.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -79.0%). Its earnings quality rates Weak and it returns −1.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Super Micro Computer do?
Super Micro Computer, known as Supermicro, builds server and storage systems, including liquid-cooled racks for AI data centers.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Supermicro
- SuperServer
What stands out about Super Micro Computer?
- The share price implies 22.9% yearly growth. At $33.72, SMCI's free cash flow of $1.10 per share would have to grow 22.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($22.0B); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 9.8× (peer median 26.0×) it ranks 1st of 39 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Weak · 4 flags. Beneish M-score 0.07 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from profit running ahead of cash · accruals 41.1% of assets · -172% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.1% of revenue · share count +7.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jun 2026). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Short interest is elevated. 15.2% of the float is sold short, 2.3 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Super Micro Computer's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Super Micro Computer undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -79.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 9.8x · near the cheap end Real range: 7.6x–42.8x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.80/5 25 analysts this month: 0 strong buy, 4 buy, 14 hold, 5 sell, 2 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.33 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Weak · 4 flags Beneish M-score 0.07 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from profit running ahead of cash · accruals 41.1% of assets · -172% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.1% of revenue · share count +7.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jun 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −1.9% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 1.9%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 58%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $4.40 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 22% return on capital Operating profit $96M → $1.7B, capital needed $850M → $8.1B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 22% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.27 · Well under fair P/E 9.8× ÷ 36.2% a year of growth behind it. 21st lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 22% return on capital); Profit is real: not cleared (4 earnings-quality flags); Cash to owners: not cleared (−1.2% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
How does Super Micro Computer compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 9.8× ✓1st of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 3.3% –25th of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 25% –22nd of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 5.7% ✕35th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 77.8% ✓3rd of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 0.60 –23rd of 44
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and SMCI doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: SMCI is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: SMCI carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and SMCI falls short of his bar. In its favor: SMCI clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: SMCI is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Super Micro Computer pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $22.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 9.85
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.27
- Price/Book < 8 1.52
- Price/Sales < 7 0.56
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +446.1%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Super Micro Computer's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Super Micro Computer in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Super Micro Computer?
87,363,140 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Super Micro Computer? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -6%
- Short interest under 5% of float 15.2%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +64% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.21 → 0.28
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Super Micro Computer shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from SMCI's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Super Micro Computer's 10-year financials show?
From SMCI's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Super Micro Computer
What kind of company is Super Micro Computer?
Super Micro Computer, known as Supermicro, builds server and storage systems, including liquid-cooled racks for AI data centers. Brands and businesses it owns include Supermicro and SuperServer. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is Super Micro Computer trading above or below its DCF value?
At $33.72, SMCI trades 79.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $18.84 per share, a margin of safety of −79.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Super Micro Computer pass?
SMCI passes 5 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (9.85), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.27), Price/Book < 8 (1.52), Price/Sales < 7 (0.56) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+446.1%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($22.0B). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Super Micro Computer's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates SMCI Weak · 4 flags. Beneish M-score 0.07 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from profit running ahead of cash · accruals 41.1% of assets · -172% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.1% of revenue · share count +7.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jun 2026). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (flagged), accruals (flagged), cash conversion (flagged) and share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Super Micro Computer report earnings next?
Super Micro Computer's next earnings report is expected on November 3, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.18 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +53.2%.
How heavily is Super Micro Computer stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 15.2% of SMCI's float was sold short (87,363,140 shares, 2.3 days to cover), down 8.2% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Super Micro Computer's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 31, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Super Micro Computer Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.