Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) stock analysis
Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $823.27 it trades 8.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -8.0%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +7.1% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Fair Isaac do?
Fair Isaac Corporation, known as FICO, creates the credit score that lenders use and sells decision software to banks and insurers.
Brands and businesses it owns
- FICO Score
- FICO Platform
What stands out about Fair Isaac?
- The share price implies 9.9% yearly growth. At $823.27, FICO's free cash flow of $44.66 per share would have to grow 9.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($17.7B), Price/Book < 8 (141.89) and Price/Sales < 7 (7.40); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 8.46 (peer median 0.60) it ranks 42nd of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 10.7% of the float is sold short, 2.3 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Clears all 4 compounder lenses. It grows profit on little capital, reports real earnings, returns cash to owners and is not priced for perfection on this site's tests. See Compounders at a Fair Price.
How has Fair Isaac's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Fair Isaac undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -8.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 21.7x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 29.0x–95.1x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.72/5 29 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 15 buy, 8 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.86 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 10.26 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch Beneish M-score −2.65 · accruals −7.1% of assets · 118% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 7.9% of revenue · share count −1.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +7.1% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 8.0% − stock comp 0.9%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 39%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.06 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $176M → $767M, capital needed $906M → $942M, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 81% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.65 · Under fair P/E 21.7× ÷ 33.5% a year of growth behind it. 56th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 4 of 4 Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
How does Fair Isaac compare with its peers?
5 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 21.7× –18th of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 5.4% –17th of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 146% ✓5th of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 34.0% ✓8th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 24.1% –18th of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 8.46 ✕42nd of 44
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and FICO doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: FICO is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: FICO carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and FICO falls short of his bar. In its favor: FICO clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: FICO is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Fair Isaac pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $17.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 21.73
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.65
- Price/Book < 8 141.89
- Price/Sales < 7 7.40
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +41.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Fair Isaac's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Fair Isaac in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Fair Isaac?
2,246,634 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Fair Isaac? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +36%
- Short interest under 5% of float 10.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +39% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.19 → 2.52
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Fair Isaac shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from FICO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Fair Isaac's 10-year financials show?
From FICO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Fair Isaac
What kind of company is Fair Isaac?
Fair Isaac Corporation, known as FICO, creates the credit score that lenders use and sells decision software to banks and insurers. Brands and businesses it owns include FICO Score and FICO Platform. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is Fair Isaac trading above or below its DCF value?
At $823.27, FICO trades 8.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $762.62 per share, a margin of safety of −8.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Fair Isaac pass?
FICO passes 3 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (21.73), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.65) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+41.2%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($17.7B), Price/Book < 8 (141.89) and Price/Sales < 7 (7.40). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Fair Isaac's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates FICO Strong · 1 watch. Beneish M-score −2.65 · accruals −7.1% of assets · 118% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 7.9% of revenue · share count −1.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025). Concerns: stock-based compensation (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
When does Fair Isaac report earnings next?
Fair Isaac's next earnings report is expected on November 11, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $11.10 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +7.1%.
How heavily is Fair Isaac stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 10.7% of FICO's float was sold short (2,246,634 shares, 2.3 days to cover), up 15.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Fair Isaac's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 30, 2025, filed Nov 7, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Fair Isaac Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.