HP Inc (HPQ) stock analysis
HP Inc (HPQ) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $33.76 it trades 55.4% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +55.4%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.8% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does HP do?
HP sells personal computers, laptops and printers, plus printer ink and toner, which produce most of its profit. It became a separate company from Hewlett Packard Enterprise in 2015.
Brands and businesses it owns
- HP
- OMEN
- HyperX
- Poly
- Instant Ink
What stands out about HP?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $33.76, HPQ's free cash flow of $4.43 per share would have to shrink 11.5% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.21) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-10.8%); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 13.1% (peer median 3.8%) it ranks 1st of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is -0.72; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.1% of the float is sold short, 4.6 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has HP's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is HP undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +55.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 12.1x · near the expensive end Real range: 5.7x–12.7x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 2.65/5 26 analysts this month: 1 strong buy, 1 buy, 13 hold, 10 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) -0.72 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.49 · accruals −2.9% of assets · 129% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.9% of revenue · share count −2.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Oct 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.8% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 3.7% + buybacks 2.9% − stock comp 1.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 55%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $3.6B → $3.5B, capital needed $535M → $3.7B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 94% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 4.21 · Well above fair P/E 12.1× ÷ 2.9% a year of growth behind it. 397th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.0×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 4.21, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 4 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does HP compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 4 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 12.1× ✓2nd of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 13.1% ✓1st of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 17% –27th of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 4.1% ✕37th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 8.1% ✕36th of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 0.32 ✓12th of 44
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.04% 3.70% ✓1st of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and HPQ doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: HPQ is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: HPQ and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and HPQ falls short of his bar. In its favor: HPQ pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: HPQ isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does HP pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $29.6B
- Trailing P/E < 25 12.06
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 4.21
- Price/Book < 8 1.06
- Price/Sales < 7 0.50
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -10.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is HP's margin of safety?
+57% on 2026-10-07 → +55% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is HP in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in HP?
73,087,274 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with HP? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +74%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +81% off 52wk low
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have HP shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from HPQ's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do HP's 10-year financials show?
From HPQ's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about HP
What kind of company is HP?
HP sells personal computers, laptops and printers, plus printer ink and toner, which produce most of its profit. It became a separate company from Hewlett Packard Enterprise in 2015. Brands and businesses it owns include HP, OMEN, HyperX, Poly and Instant Ink. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is HP trading above or below its DCF value?
At $33.76, HPQ trades 55.4% below this site's neutral DCF value of $75.69 per share, a margin of safety of +55.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does HP pass?
HPQ passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($29.6B), Trailing P/E < 25 (12.06), Price/Book < 8 (1.06) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.50). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (4.21) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-10.8%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is HP's share price pricing in?
At $33.76, HPQ's free cash flow of $4.43 per share would have to shrink 11.5% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How risky is HP's balance sheet?
HPQ's Altman Z″-Score is −0.72, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.32, against a sector median of 0.60. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How heavily is HP stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 8.1% of HPQ's float was sold short (73,087,274 shares, 4.6 days to cover), up 0.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: HP's 10-K annual report for the year ended Oct 31, 2025, filed Dec 10, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this HP Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on HP Inc (HPQ) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.