Paccar Inc (PCAR) stock analysis
Paccar Inc (PCAR) clears 8 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $109.59 it trades 12.7% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -12.7%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +4.0% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does PACCAR do?
PACCAR designs and builds heavy and medium-duty trucks and engines, plus truck parts and financing.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Kenworth
- Peterbilt
- DAF
- PACCAR Parts
What stands out about PACCAR?
- The share price implies 11.0% yearly growth. At $109.59, PCAR's free cash flow of $5.69 per share would have to grow 11.0% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. PCAR passes 8 of the 8 value filters. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: dividend yield. At 2.53% (peer median 1.28%) it ranks 3rd of 17 among machinery stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: revenue growth. At −10.6% (peer median 5.2%) it ranks 16th of 17 among machinery stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 2.53%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has PACCAR's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is PACCAR undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -12.7%
- P/E vs. its own history 22.8x · near the expensive end Real range: 11.1x–24.3x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.62/5 26 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 7 buy, 13 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.58 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals −4.6% of assets · 119% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.1% of revenue · share count +0.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +4.0% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.0% + buybacks 0.1% − stock comp 0.0%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 4%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (no current-assets line on its balance sheet)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.28 · Above fair P/E 22.8× ÷ 17.8% a year of growth behind it. 134th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a) Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (no current-assets line on its balance sheet); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 16 other machinery stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does PACCAR compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 16 other machinery stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.7× 22.8× ✓4th of 17
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.2% 5.2% ✓6th of 17
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 15% 13% ✕12th of 17
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 12.4% 9.0% ✕15th of 17
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 5.2% −10.6% ✕16th of 17
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.72 ✕13th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.28% 2.53% ✓3rd of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PCAR doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: PCAR is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: PCAR carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PCAR falls short of his bar. In its favor: PCAR pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: PCAR isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does PACCAR pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $57.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 22.78
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.28
- Price/Book < 8 2.81
- Price/Sales < 7 2.05
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +3.7%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) -7.1%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) -9.1%
What is PACCAR's margin of safety?
-14% on 2026-10-07 → -13% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is PACCAR in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in PACCAR?
11,869,649 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with PACCAR? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +33%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +18% off 52wk low
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have PACCAR shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PCAR's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do PACCAR's 10-year financials show?
From PCAR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about PACCAR
What kind of company is PACCAR?
PACCAR designs and builds heavy and medium-duty trucks and engines, plus truck parts and financing. Brands and businesses it owns include Kenworth, Peterbilt, DAF and PACCAR Parts. This site groups it with Machinery stocks.
Is PACCAR trading above or below its DCF value?
At $109.59, PCAR trades 12.7% above this site's neutral DCF value of $97.21 per share, a margin of safety of −12.7%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does PACCAR pass?
PCAR passes 8 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($57.0B), Trailing P/E < 25 (22.78), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.28), Price/Book < 8 (2.81), Price/Sales < 7 (2.05), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+3.7%), vs 50-day MA (±12%) (-7.1%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (-9.1%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is PACCAR's share price pricing in?
At $109.59, PCAR's free cash flow of $5.69 per share would have to grow 11.0% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How much cash does PACCAR return to shareholders?
PCAR's net shareholder yield is +4.0%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.0% + buybacks 0.1% − stock comp 0.0%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 4%. Its trailing dividend yield is 2.53%, paid out of 48% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (declining revenue). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does PACCAR report earnings next?
PACCAR's next earnings report is expected on October 27, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.63 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of −1.5%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: PACCAR's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 18, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Paccar Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Paccar Inc (PCAR) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.