Deere & Co (DE) stock analysis
Deere & Co (DE) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 0 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $643.62 it trades 107.3% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -107.3%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +1.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Deere do?
Deere makes agricultural machinery (tractors, combines, sprayers), construction and forestry equipment and lawn equipment, and earns from parts, technology subscriptions and financing through John Deere Financial.
Brands and businesses it owns
- John Deere
- John Deere Financial
- Wirtgen
- Blue River Technology
What stands out about Deere?
- The share price implies 26.8% yearly growth. At $643.62, DE's free cash flow of $18.18 per share would have to grow 26.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (34.92) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.73); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -126% on Oct 7 to -107% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 34.9× (peer median 26.7×) it ranks 16th of 17 among machinery stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 2 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 1.03%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Deere's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Deere undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -107.3%
- P/E vs. its own history 34.9x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 10.8x–24.9x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.91/5 34 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 17 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.85 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals −2.3% of assets · 113% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −3.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Nov 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +1.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.0% + buybacks 0.7% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 36%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (no current-assets line on its balance sheet)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.73 · Well above fair P/E 34.9× ÷ 12.8% a year of growth behind it. 311th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (no current-assets line on its balance sheet); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.73, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 16 other machinery stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 5 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 2/6 flags
How does Deere compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 16 other machinery stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 5 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.7× 34.9× ✕16th of 17
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.2% 2.8% ✕16th of 17
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 15% 18% ✓5th of 17
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 12.4% 10.2% ✕14th of 17
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 5.2% 8.0% ✓4th of 17
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 2.28 ✕14th of 16
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.28% 1.03% ✕12th of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and DE doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: DE is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, and has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years. Where it comes up short: DE carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and DE falls short of his bar. Where it comes up short: DE doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Deere pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $170.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 34.92
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.73
- Price/Book < 8 6.08
- Price/Sales < 7 3.55
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +7.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Deere's margin of safety?
-126% on 2026-10-07 → -107% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Deere in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Deere?
5,745,795 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Deere? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -22%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +45% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 3.63 → 2.38
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Deere shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from DE's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Deere's 10-year financials show?
From DE's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Deere
What kind of company is Deere?
Deere makes agricultural machinery (tractors, combines, sprayers), construction and forestry equipment and lawn equipment, and earns from parts, technology subscriptions and financing through John Deere Financial. Brands and businesses it owns include John Deere, John Deere Financial, Wirtgen and Blue River Technology. This site groups it with Machinery stocks.
Is Deere trading above or below its DCF value?
At $643.62, DE trades 107.3% above this site's neutral DCF value of $310.50 per share, a margin of safety of −107.3%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Deere pass?
DE passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($170.2B), Price/Book < 8 (6.08), Price/Sales < 7 (3.55) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+7.3%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (34.92) and PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.73). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Deere's share price pricing in?
At $643.62, DE's free cash flow of $18.18 per share would have to grow 26.8% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
How much cash does Deere return to shareholders?
DE's net shareholder yield is +1.6%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.0% + buybacks 0.7% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 36%. Its trailing dividend yield is 1.03%, paid out of 36% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 2 of 6 flags (high leverage and weak interest coverage). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Is Deere's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
DE trades at 34.9× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 10.8× and 24.9× (average 17.3×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Deere's 10-K annual report for the year ended Nov 2, 2025, filed Dec 18, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Deere & Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Deere & Co (DE) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.