Twilio Inc (TWLO) stock analysis
Twilio Inc (TWLO) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $253.63 it trades 132.6% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -132.6%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +0.7% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Twilio do?
Twilio sells cloud software that lets developers add messaging, voice, email and customer data tools to their apps.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Twilio
- SendGrid
- Segment
What stands out about Twilio?
- The share price implies 29.9% yearly growth. At $253.63, TWLO's free cash flow of $6.39 per share would have to grow 29.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (34.18) and Price/Sales < 7 (7.05); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.11 (peer median 0.60) it ranks 6th of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: return on equity. At 14% (peer median 24%) it ranks 30th of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.84 · accruals −9.9% of assets · stock comp 11.8% of revenue · share count −6.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Twilio's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Twilio undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -132.6%
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.13/5 38 analysts this month: 13 strong buy, 19 buy, 4 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 4.16 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.34 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.84 · accruals −9.9% of assets · stock comp 11.8% of revenue · share count −6.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.7% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 2.2% − stock comp 1.5%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 8 years its split-adjusted share count rose 77%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit −$74M → −$258M, capital needed $72M → $5.9B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now −4% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.01 · Well under fair P/E 34.2× ÷ 5342% a year of growth behind it. 2nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit started from a loss); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
How does Twilio compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 34.2× –26th of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 2.5% –29th of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 14% ✕30th of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 20.6% –20th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 17.8% –25th of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 0.11 ✓6th of 44
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and TWLO doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: TWLO is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity. Where it comes up short: TWLO and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and TWLO falls short of his bar. In its favor: TWLO clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: TWLO is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Twilio pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $39.3B
- Trailing P/E < 25 34.18
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.01
- Price/Book < 8 4.37
- Price/Sales < 7 7.05
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +4659.4%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Twilio's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Twilio in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Twilio?
6,347,074 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Twilio? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -37%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +139% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2020 0.04 → 0.13
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Twilio shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for TWLO yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from TWLO's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Twilio's 10-year financials show?
From TWLO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Twilio
What kind of company is Twilio?
Twilio sells cloud software that lets developers add messaging, voice, email and customer data tools to their apps. Brands and businesses it owns include Twilio, SendGrid and Segment. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is Twilio trading above or below its DCF value?
At $253.63, TWLO trades 132.6% above this site's neutral DCF value of $109.06 per share, a margin of safety of −132.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Twilio pass?
TWLO passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($39.3B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.01), Price/Book < 8 (4.37) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+4659.4%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (34.18) and Price/Sales < 7 (7.05). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Twilio's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates TWLO Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.84 · accruals −9.9% of assets · stock comp 11.8% of revenue · share count −6.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: stock-based compensation (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How fast has Twilio grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, TWLO's revenue grew from $277 million to $5.1 billion, 38.1% a year. Net income went from −$41.0 million to $34.0 million, and its net profit margin from -14.8% to 0.7%. All figures are from TWLO's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
When does Twilio report earnings next?
Twilio's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.50 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +10.8%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Twilio's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 24, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Twilio Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Twilio Inc (TWLO) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.