Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) stock analysis
Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 1 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $107.72 it trades 26.9% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -26.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +0.7% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Estée Lauder do?
Estée Lauder makes and sells prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance and haircare products through department stores, its own stores, travel retail and online.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Estée Lauder
- Clinique
- MAC
- La Mer
- Aveda
- Jo Malone London
- Bobbi Brown
- Origins
- Tom Ford Beauty
- Too Faced
- The Ordinary
What stands out about Estée Lauder?
- The share price implies 14.0% yearly growth. At $107.72, EL's free cash flow of $4.97 per share would have to grow 14.0% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (208.53), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (5.55) and Price/Book < 8 (9.97); the other 2 pass and 3 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -13% on Oct 7 to -27% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 208.5× (peer median 18.3×) it ranks 19th of 19 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 1.34%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Estée Lauder's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Estée Lauder undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -26.9%
- P/E vs. its own history 208.5x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 38.6x–158.3x over 4 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.71/5 38 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 14 buy, 16 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.89 · accruals −8.0% of assets · stock comp 2.1% of revenue · share count +0.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Jun 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.7% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 1.3% + buybacks 0.2% − stock comp 0.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 8%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $2.0B → $322M, capital needed $6.4B → $12B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 3% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 5.55 · Well above fair P/E 208.5× ÷ 37.6% a year of growth behind it. 417th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 5.55, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 1 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 0 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Estée Lauder compare with its peers?
1 of 7 measure sits above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 208.5× ✕19th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 4.6% –13th of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 5% ✕19th of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 1.2% ✕19th of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% 5.1% –7th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 1.92 –13th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 1.34% –11th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and EL doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: EL trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: EL isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and EL falls short of his bar. In its favor: EL is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: EL fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 ✕
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Estée Lauder pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $38.0B
- Trailing P/E < 25 208.53
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 5.55
- Price/Book < 8 9.97
- Price/Sales < 7 2.52
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Estée Lauder's margin of safety?
-13% on 2026-10-07 → -27% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Estée Lauder in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Estée Lauder?
6,664,896 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Estée Lauder? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +25%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +59% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.81 → 1.92
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Estée Lauder shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from EL's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Estée Lauder's 10-year financials show?
From EL's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Estée Lauder
What kind of company is Estée Lauder?
Estée Lauder makes and sells prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance and haircare products through department stores, its own stores, travel retail and online. Brands and businesses it owns include Estée Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Aveda and Jo Malone London. This site groups it with Consumer products stocks.
Is Estée Lauder trading above or below its DCF value?
At $107.72, EL trades 26.9% above this site's neutral DCF value of $84.91 per share, a margin of safety of −26.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Estée Lauder pass?
EL passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($38.0B) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.52). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (208.53), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (5.55) and Price/Book < 8 (9.97). EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Estée Lauder return to shareholders?
EL's net shareholder yield is +0.7%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 1.3% + buybacks 0.2% − stock comp 0.8%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 8%. Its trailing dividend yield is 1.34%, paid out of 28% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (a risky earnings payout). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Is Estée Lauder's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
EL trades at 208.5× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 4 fiscal years its P/E was between 38.6× and 158.3× (average 90.2×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
When does Estée Lauder report earnings next?
Estée Lauder's next earnings report is expected on November 2, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.52 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +27.3%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Estée Lauder's 10-K annual report for the year ended Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 19, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Estee Lauder Companies Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.