D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) stock analysis
D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 7 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $147.66 it trades 34.1% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +34.1%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +11.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does D.R. Horton do?
D.R. Horton is the largest US homebuilder by number of homes sold. It builds and sells entry-level and move-up houses in markets across the country and offers mortgage and title services to its buyers.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Express Homes
- Emerald Homes
- Freedom Homes
- Forestar
What stands out about D.R. Horton?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $147.66, DHI's free cash flow of $13.13 per share would have to shrink 2.2% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.69); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +39% on Oct 7 to +34% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 8.9% (peer median 5.1%) it ranks 3rd of 19 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Held by investors this site follows. Stan Druckenmiller (1.1% of its portfolio) and Warren Buffett (0.0% of its portfolio), from their latest 13F filings. See Superinvestors.
How has D.R. Horton's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is D.R. Horton undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +34.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 13.5x · near the expensive end Real range: 4.0x–14.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.46/5 24 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 4 buy, 15 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.58 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch accruals 0.5% of assets · 76% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −5.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +11.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.2% + buybacks 10.5% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 3%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (no current-assets line on its balance sheet)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.69 · Well above fair P/E 13.5× ÷ 5.0% a year of growth behind it. 304th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (no current-assets line on its balance sheet); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.69, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does D.R. Horton compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 13.5× ✓4th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 8.9% ✓3rd of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 13% ✕17th of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 9.2% ✕15th of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% −3.5% ✕14th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.30 –7th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 1.23% ✕13th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and DHI clears it. In its favor: DHI is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: DHI runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and DHI falls short of his bar. In its favor: DHI isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: DHI doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, and isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
From Berkshire Hathaway's SEC 13F-HR filing dated 2026-08-14, compared with its 2026-05-15 filing - its own disclosed position, separate from this site's Buffett-style checklist above. 13F filings cover only U.S.-listed equity holdings and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days.
Which of the 8 value filters does D.R. Horton pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $41.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 13.45
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.69
- Price/Book < 8 1.72
- Price/Sales < 7 1.23
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -4.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is D.R. Horton's margin of safety?
+39% on 2026-10-07 → +34% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is D.R. Horton in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in D.R. Horton?
10,883,144 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with D.R. Horton? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +61%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +11% off 52wk low
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have D.R. Horton shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from DHI's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do D.R. Horton's 10-year financials show?
From DHI's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about D.R. Horton
What kind of company is D.R. Horton?
D.R. Horton is the largest US homebuilder by number of homes sold. It builds and sells entry-level and move-up houses in markets across the country and offers mortgage and title services to its buyers. Brands and businesses it owns include Express Homes, Emerald Homes, Freedom Homes and Forestar. This site groups it with Consumer products stocks.
Is D.R. Horton trading above or below its DCF value?
At $147.66, DHI trades 34.1% below this site's neutral DCF value of $224.23 per share, a margin of safety of +34.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does D.R. Horton pass?
DHI passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($41.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (13.45), Price/Book < 8 (1.72), Price/Sales < 7 (1.23) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-4.8%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.69). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are D.R. Horton's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates DHI Strong · 1 watch. accruals 0.5% of assets · 76% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count −5.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025). Concerns: cash conversion (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
Which well-known investors own D.R. Horton?
Among the investors whose SEC 13F filings this site tracks, Stan Druckenmiller (1.1% of the portfolio; a new position) and Warren Buffett (0.0% of the portfolio; a new position) held DHI as of June 30, 2026. 13F filings cover only US-listed equities and arrive up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so they lag the real portfolios. See Superinvestors.
When does D.R. Horton report earnings next?
D.R. Horton's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.05 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +0.5%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: D.R. Horton's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 30, 2025, filed Nov 19, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this D.R. Horton Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.