Yield curve today: is the Treasury curve inverted?
As of October 30, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yields 4.94% and the 2-year 4.56%, so the yield curve is upward sloping: the 10-year minus 2-year spread is +0.38 percentage points. The 3-month bill yields 4.16%, a spread of +0.78 points to the 10-year. Its last inversion ran from July 8, 2022 to August 23, 2024, 112 weeks, with a low of -1.06 points.
Yields as of October 30, 2026 (US Treasury); history from FRED. Refreshed weekly.
What does the Treasury yield curve look like today?
Eleven maturities from 1 month to 30 years, now and a month and a year ago.
- Now (Oct 30, 2026)
- A month ago (Sep 30, 2026)
- A year ago (Oct 30, 2025)
| Maturity | Now | A month ago | A year ago | Change over the year, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.06% | 4.02% | 4.05% | +0.01 |
| 3 months | 4.16% | 4.20% | 3.92% | +0.24 |
| 6 months | 4.25% | 4.33% | 3.79% | +0.46 |
| 1 year | 4.36% | 4.54% | 3.70% | +0.66 |
| 2 years | 4.56% | 4.88% | 3.61% | +0.95 |
| 3 years | 4.65% | 5.00% | 3.61% | +1.04 |
| 5 years | 4.71% | 5.09% | 3.72% | +0.99 |
| 7 years | 4.80% | 5.19% | 3.90% | +0.90 |
| 10 years | 4.94% | 5.29% | 4.11% | +0.83 |
| 20 years | 5.34% | 5.68% | 4.64% | +0.70 |
| 30 years | 5.31% | 5.64% | 4.65% | +0.66 |
The yield curve plots what the US government pays to borrow for each length of time, from 1 month to 30 years. Normally longer loans pay more, so the line slopes up; when short yields rise above long ones the curve is inverted. The yields are the Treasury's par yield curve rates, read at October 30, 2026. Terms: yield curve, fed funds rate.
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
Two spreads, and how often each has been below zero since 1990.
| Spread | Now | Weeks below zero since 1990 | Share of weeks below zero |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year minus 2-year | +0.38 | 216 | 11% |
| 10-year minus 3-month | +0.78 | 232 | 12% |
- 10-year minus 2-year
- 10-year minus 3-month
- 10-year
- 3-month bill
- 2-year
A spread is one yield minus another. The 10-year minus 2-year is the one most often quoted; the New York Fed's recession-probability model uses the 10-year minus 3-month. When either is below zero the curve is inverted. The 3-month bill follows the Fed's policy rate closely, which is why the short end tells you about policy and the long end about what the market expects over years.
Does an inverted yield curve predict a recession?
Every inversion since 1990 against the recessions that followed, including the cases that did not fit.
| Inversion (measure and dates) | Weeks inverted | Deepest point, points | Next recession began | Months after the inversion began |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year minus 2-year June 19, 1998 to July 24, 1998 | 4 | -0.05 June 19, 1998 | April 2001 | 34 |
| 10-year minus 2-year February 4, 2000 to December 22, 2000 | 47 | -0.52 April 7, 2000 | April 2001 | 14 |
| 10-year minus 3-month April 7, 2000 to February 9, 2001 | 31 | -0.82 December 15, 2000 | April 2001 | 12 |
| 10-year minus 2-year December 30, 2005 to June 1, 2007 | 49 | -0.18 November 24, 2006 | January 2008 | 25 |
| 10-year minus 3-month July 21, 2006 to August 3, 2007 | 48 | -0.60 December 1, 2006 | January 2008 | 18 |
| 10-year minus 3-month March 22, 2019 to October 4, 2019 | 21 | -0.49 August 30, 2019 | March 2020 | 12 |
| 10-year minus 2-year July 8, 2022 to August 23, 2024 | 112 | -1.06 June 30, 2023 | none so far | n/a |
| 10-year minus 3-month October 28, 2022 to September 12, 2025 | 127 | -1.82 May 5, 2023 | none so far | n/a |
Of the 8 inversions in the table, 6 were followed by the start of a recession within three years, after 12 to 34 months, and 2 were not. Recession dates are the National Bureau of Economic Research's, through September 2026.
How to read this: the gap from an inversion to the next recession is wide and inconsistent, which makes the curve a long-range warning at best and not a timer. The shortest inversion in the table lasted 4 weeks (from June 19, 1998); the longest lasted 127 weeks (from October 28, 2022) and has had no recession start after it in these dates. The NBER dates a recession many months after it begins, so a recent start would not appear yet. Past results do not predict future ones, and with only four recessions since 1990 the sample is small.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Four steps from the Fed's policy rate to the shape of the curve.
- Short yields follow the Fed. The 3-month bill and the 2-year mostly track the Federal Reserve's policy rate and where the market expects it to go over the next two years.
- Long yields look further. The 10-year reflects expected growth, inflation and the extra pay investors ask for lending for a decade.
- An inversion says the market expects rates to fall. When short yields are higher than long ones, investors are pricing lower policy rates later, which has often happened when growth was expected to weaken.
- It is a market signal, not a rule. Term premiums, bond buying by central banks and foreign demand can move the long end for reasons that have nothing to do with a recession.
For how rates affect share prices see how interest rates affect stock prices, and for what sectors have done before past recessions see which sectors lead before a recession. Real yields are on the Dollar vs Gold page.
How does the yield curve connect to stocks?
The same question from other angles.
| Question | What it asks | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Stocks vs bonds | Do stocks yield more than Treasuries? | Equity risk premium |
| Market stress | Are warning signs lining up? | Crash Indicator |
| Sector pricing | Which sectors are priced highest? | Sector valuation map |
| Debt | How much does the government owe, and what does it pay? | National debt |
This page describes the curve and its history. It is not a forecast, and no yield level on it is a signal to buy or sell anything.
Frequently asked questions: the yield curve
What is the yield curve?
A line showing what the US government pays to borrow for each length of time, from 1 month to 30 years. Normally longer loans pay more, so it slopes up. See the glossary.
Is the yield curve inverted today?
As of October 30, 2026 the 10-year minus 2-year spread is +0.38 percentage points (not inverted) and the 10-year minus 3-month spread is +0.78 points (not inverted).
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term ones. It usually means the market expects interest rates to fall later, often because growth is expected to weaken, but long yields can also move for reasons unrelated to growth.
Does an inverted yield curve predict a recession?
Not reliably. Of 8 inversions of four weeks or more since 1990 on the two measures here, 6 were followed by the start of a recession within three years, after 12 to 34 months, and 2 were not. The longest, 127 weeks from October 28, 2022, had no recession start after it in the National Bureau of Economic Research's dates through September 2026.
How long can the yield curve stay inverted?
The longest 10-year minus 2-year inversion since 1990 lasted 112 weeks, and the shortest 4 weeks.
Where does this data come from?
Yields are the US Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates; weekly history and the recession dates come from FRED (the St. Louis Fed), which publishes the National Bureau of Economic Research's recession indicator. The page is rebuilt every week.
Where does this data come from?
- Yields: US Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates: 1 month to 30 years, the latest day and the same day a month and a year before.
- History: FRED (St. Louis Fed): weekly 3-month (DGS3MO), 2-year (DGS2), 10-year (DGS10) and 30-year (DGS30) yields since 1990.
- Recessions: the National Bureau of Economic Research's recession indicator (USREC) via FRED. The NBER dates a recession many months after it starts.
- Method and limits: every figure is shown as published, with its date, and refreshed weekly (data as of October 30, 2026). There is no composite score, and nothing here predicts where a rate goes next. Read the Editorial Standards for how this site handles data.
Educational content only, not investment, currency-trading or tax advice. Exchange rates and interest rates move for reasons no single table captures.