Exxonmobil Holdings Corp (XOM) stock analysis
Exxonmobil Holdings Corp (XOM) clears 7 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $178.23 it trades 40.4% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -40.4%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Exxon Mobil do?
Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest oil and gas companies. It produces crude oil and natural gas, refines it into fuels and makes chemicals, with major projects in Guyana and the Permian Basin.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Exxon
- Mobil
- Esso
- Imperial Oil
- Pioneer Natural Resources
What stands out about Exxon Mobil?
- The share price implies 16.6% yearly growth. At $178.23, XOM's free cash flow of $7.44 per share would have to grow 16.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+16.6%); the other 7 pass. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -29% on Oct 7 to -40% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.16 (peer median 0.45) it ranks 2nd of 21 among energy stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.75 · accruals −5.1% of assets · 165% of profit arrived as cash · share count +3.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Exxon Mobil's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Exxon Mobil undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -40.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 22.4x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 8.3x–18.0x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.61/5 31 analysts this month: 5 strong buy, 9 buy, 17 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.63 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.75 · accruals −5.1% of assets · 165% of profit arrived as cash · share count +3.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 5.1% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.4% + buybacks 2.8%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 12%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.86 per $1 of new profit · See's-like · but only 17% return on capital Operating profit $20B → $48B, capital needed $252B → $277B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 17% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.45 · Above fair P/E 22.4× ÷ 15.4% a year of growth behind it. 159th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 17% return on capital); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other energy stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Exxon Mobil compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 20 other energy stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 17.2× 22.4× ✕16th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 6.5% 4.2% ✕18th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 16% 13% ✕16th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.5% 9.1% –14th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 11.2% 9.6% –12th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.45 0.16 ✓2nd of 21
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.10% 2.35% –8th of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and XOM doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: XOM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: XOM runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and XOM falls short of his bar. In its favor: XOM is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: XOM fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Exxon Mobil pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $732.3B
- Trailing P/E < 25 22.36
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.45
- Price/Book < 8 2.82
- Price/Sales < 7 2.03
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +112.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +7.8%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) +16.6%
What is Exxon Mobil's margin of safety?
-29% on 2026-10-07 → -40% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Exxon Mobil in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Exxon Mobil?
39,222,492 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Exxon Mobil? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +17%
- Short interest under 5% of float 0.9%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +61% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.19 → 0.16
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Exxon Mobil shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for XOM yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from XOM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Exxon Mobil's 10-year financials show?
From XOM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
A single trade isn't automatically bullish or bearish. Insiders sell for all kinds of personal reasons. Most recent filings for XOM:
Frequently asked questions about Exxon Mobil
What kind of company is Exxon Mobil?
Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest oil and gas companies. It produces crude oil and natural gas, refines it into fuels and makes chemicals, with major projects in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Brands and businesses it owns include Exxon, Mobil, Esso, Imperial Oil and Pioneer Natural Resources. This site groups it with Energy stocks.
Is Exxon Mobil trading above or below its DCF value?
At $178.23, XOM trades 40.4% above this site's neutral DCF value of $126.98 per share, a margin of safety of −40.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Exxon Mobil pass?
XOM passes 7 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($732.3B), Trailing P/E < 25 (22.36), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.45), Price/Book < 8 (2.82), Price/Sales < 7 (2.03), EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+112.8%) and vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+7.8%). It misses vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+16.6%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Exxon Mobil's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates XOM Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.75 · accruals −5.1% of assets · 165% of profit arrived as cash · share count +3.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
Where is Exxon Mobil trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $178.23, XOM trades 60.8% above its 52-week low of $110.64 and 0.4% below its 52-week high of $178.98.
When does Exxon Mobil report earnings next?
Exxon Mobil's next earnings report is expected on October 30, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.12 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +3.8%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Exxon Mobil's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 18, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Exxonmobil Holdings Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Exxonmobil Holdings Corp (XOM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.