Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) clears 6 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 5 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $459.28 it trades 40.3% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +40.3%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Marathon Petroleum do?
Marathon Petroleum is the largest US oil refiner, turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel and other fuels, and owns a large pipeline and terminal network through its MPLX partnership.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Marathon
- ARCO (licensed)
- MPLX
What stands out about Marathon Petroleum?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $459.28, MPC's free cash flow of $45.08 per share would have to shrink 4.6% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+12.8%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+62.6%); the other 6 pass. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +45% on Oct 7 to +40% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 49% (peer median 16%) it ranks 2nd of 21 among energy stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.88% (peer median 2.10%) it ranks 20th of 21 among energy stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has Marathon Petroleum's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Marathon Petroleum undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +40.3%
- P/E vs. its own history 15.4x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 4.1x–13.8x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.62/5 24 analysts this month: 1 strong buy, 13 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.68 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.03 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.82 · accruals −5.2% of assets · 181% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.1% of revenue · share count −13.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 2.7% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 57%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $1.12 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like · but only 19% return on capital Operating profit $3.7B → $9.9B, capital needed $44B → $51B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 19% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.62 · Under fair P/E 15.4× ÷ 24.9% a year of growth behind it. 50th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 19% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other energy stocks this site tracks: 4 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Marathon Petroleum compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 20 other energy stocks tracked here, 4 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 17.2× 15.4× ✓7th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 6.5% 9.8% ✓4th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 16% 49% ✓2nd of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 13.5% 5.5% ✕18th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 11.2% 15.8% ✓6th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.45 1.72 ✕19th of 21
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.10% 0.88% ✕20th of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MPC doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: MPC is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: MPC carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, and hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MPC falls short of his bar. In its favor: MPC clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: MPC is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Marathon Petroleum pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $131.4B
- Trailing P/E < 25 15.36
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.62
- Price/Book < 8 6.89
- Price/Sales < 7 0.84
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +347.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) +12.8%
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) +62.6%
What is Marathon Petroleum's margin of safety?
+45% on 2026-10-07 → +40% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Marathon Petroleum in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Marathon Petroleum?
7,039,952 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Marathon Petroleum? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +65%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +181% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.78 → 1.90
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Marathon Petroleum shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for MPC yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MPC's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Marathon Petroleum's 10-year financials show?
From MPC's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Marathon Petroleum
What kind of company is Marathon Petroleum?
Marathon Petroleum is the largest US oil refiner, turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel and other fuels, and owns a large pipeline and terminal network through its MPLX partnership. Brands and businesses it owns include Marathon, ARCO (licensed) and MPLX. This site groups it with Energy stocks.
Is Marathon Petroleum trading above or below its DCF value?
At $459.28, MPC trades 40.3% below this site's neutral DCF value of $769.78 per share, a margin of safety of +40.3%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Marathon Petroleum pass?
MPC passes 6 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($131.4B), Trailing P/E < 25 (15.36), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.62), Price/Book < 8 (6.89), Price/Sales < 7 (0.84) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+347.3%). It misses vs 50-day MA (±12%) (+12.8%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) (+62.6%). The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Marathon Petroleum's share price pricing in?
At $459.28, MPC's free cash flow of $45.08 per share would have to shrink 4.6% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Is Marathon Petroleum's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
MPC trades at 15.4× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 4.1× and 13.8× (average 8.1×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
When does Marathon Petroleum report earnings next?
Marathon Petroleum's next earnings report is expected on November 3, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $24.57 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +45.3%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Marathon Petroleum's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 26, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Marathon Petroleum Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.