Vistra Corp (VST) stock analysis
Vistra Corp (VST) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 0 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit utilities companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Vistra do?
Vistra Corp. generates electricity from natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar, and sells power to homes and businesses.
What stands out about Vistra?
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Price/Book < 8 (8.69) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-5.0%); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $140.83, VST is 4.5% above its low of $134.71 and 33.2% below its high of $210.85. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 42% (peer median 10%) it ranks 2nd of 31 among utilities stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Insiders have been buying. 3 open-market purchases were reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the last 90 days, about $464.2 million in all. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
How has Vistra's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Vistra undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Utilities)
- P/E vs. its own history 21.5x · near the cheap end Real range: 9.7x–59.1x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.21/5 24 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 15 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Utilities)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.70 · accruals −7.9% of assets · 276% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.6% of revenue · share count −4.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.6% + buybacks 2.2% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 6 years its split-adjusted share count fell 31%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $3.02 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like · but only 13% return on capital Operating profit $894M → $2.9B, capital needed $16B → $22B, 2017–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 13% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.33† · Above fair P/E 21.5× ÷ 16.1% a year of growth behind it (5-year EPS growth: Finnhub reported no PEG, so this one is estimated). 140th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 3 of 4 · misses capital-light Capital-light growth: not cleared (only 13% return on capital); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 30 other utilities stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Vistra compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 30 other utilities stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 21.2× 21.5× –18th of 31
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 10% 42% ✓2nd of 31
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.1% 11.7% ✕23rd of 31
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.5% 18.6% ✓3rd of 31
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.77 3.74 ✕29th of 31
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.01% 1.05% ✕31st of 31
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and VST doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: VST is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years. Where it comes up short: VST and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and VST falls short of his bar. Where it comes up short: VST doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
- Bonus: insiders buying (90d) 3 buys, ~$464.2M
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Vistra pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $47.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 21.48
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.33 †
- Price/Book < 8 8.69
- Price/Sales < 7 2.51
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -5.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Vistra's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how utilities companies report cash flow.
Where is Vistra in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Vistra?
10,482,914 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Vistra? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Utilities)
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Vistra shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from VST's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Vistra's 10-year financials show?
From VST's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 9 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Vistra
What kind of company is Vistra?
Vistra Corp. generates electricity from natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar, and sells power to homes and businesses. This site groups it with Utilities stocks.
Why does Vistra have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit regulated utilities, which reinvest nearly all of their operating cash flow, so free cash flow per share is tiny next to the share price. So VST gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Vistra pass?
VST passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($47.7B), Trailing P/E < 25 (21.48), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.33) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.51). It misses Price/Book < 8 (8.69) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-5.0%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is Vistra trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $140.83, VST trades 4.3% above its 52-week low of $134.71 and 33.2% below its 52-week high of $210.85. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
Are Vistra's insiders buying its shares?
Yes: 3 open-market insider purchases of Vistra shares, worth about $464.2 million in total, were reported in SEC Form 4 filings in the 90 days up to this page's last update. Only open-market purchases count here, not option exercises or stock awards. See the Insider Buying Tracker.
When does Vistra report earnings next?
Vistra's next earnings report is expected on November 6, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $2.96 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of −9.4%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Vistra's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Vistra Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Vistra Corp (VST) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.