Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock analysis
Tesla Inc (TSLA) clears 1 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $374.58 it trades 1872.8% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -1872.8%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns −0.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Tesla do?
Tesla makes electric cars, battery energy-storage systems and solar products, and sells software such as Full Self-Driving. Vehicle sales are most of its revenue; it also runs a large fast-charging network and is working on robotaxis and humanoid robots.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Model 3
- Model Y
- Model S
- Model X
- Cybertruck
- Megapack
- Powerwall
- Supercharger
- Optimus
What stands out about Tesla?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $374.58, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 5 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (459.82), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (28.36) and Price/Book < 8 (16.58) and 2 more; the other 1 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from -1158% on Oct 7 to -1873% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- P/E at the top of its own range. TSLA trades at 459.8× trailing earnings; at the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years the multiple was between 34.0× and 416.4×.
- Owners are being diluted. Its net shareholder yield is −0.2%: more stock is issued than is bought back or paid out. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
How has Tesla's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Tesla undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -1872.8%
- P/E vs. its own history 459.8x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 34.0x–416.4x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.59/5 54 analysts this month: 10 strong buy, 17 buy, 22 hold, 5 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.54 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 4.48 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.90 · accruals −8.4% of assets · 166% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 3.0% of revenue · share count +0.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −0.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 13 years its split-adjusted share count rose 117%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $3.22 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like · but only 22% return on capital Operating profit −$896M → $6.8B, capital needed $6.6B → $31B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 22% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 28.4 · Well above fair P/E 459.8× ÷ 16.2% a year of growth behind it. 438th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit started from a loss); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (−0.1% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 28.4, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and TSLA doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: TSLA and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: TSLA isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and TSLA falls short of his bar. In its favor: TSLA isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type. Where it comes up short: TSLA doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Tesla pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $1.48T
- Trailing P/E < 25 459.82
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 28.36
- Price/Book < 8 16.58
- Price/Sales < 7 14.30
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -42.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Tesla's margin of safety?
-1158% on 2026-10-07 → -1873% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Tesla in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Tesla?
70,931,312 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Tesla? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -1066%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.2%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 1/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +26% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.47 → 0.08
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Tesla shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from TSLA's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Tesla's 10-year financials show?
From TSLA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Tesla
What kind of company is Tesla?
Tesla makes electric cars, battery energy-storage systems and solar products, and sells software such as Full Self-Driving. Vehicle sales are most of its revenue; it also runs a large fast-charging network and is working on robotaxis and humanoid robots. Brands and businesses it owns include Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, Cybertruck and Megapack. This site groups it with Automobiles stocks.
Is Tesla trading above or below its DCF value?
At $374.58, TSLA trades 1872.8% above this site's neutral DCF value of $18.99 per share, a margin of safety of −1872.8%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Tesla pass?
TSLA passes 1 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($1.48T). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (459.82), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (28.36), Price/Book < 8 (16.58), Price/Sales < 7 (14.30) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-42.9%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Tesla's share price pricing in?
At $374.58, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
How fast has Tesla grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, TSLA's revenue grew from $7.0 billion to $94.8 billion, 33.6% a year. Net income went from −$675 million to $3.8 billion, and its net profit margin from -9.6% to 4.0%. In fiscal 2025 it produced $6.2 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 6.6% of its revenue. All figures are from TSLA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Is Tesla's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
TSLA trades at 459.8× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 34.0× and 416.4× (average 184.5×), so today's multiple is at or above the highest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Tesla's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Jan 29, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Tesla Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Tesla Inc (TSLA) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.