Ford Motor Co (F) stock analysis
Ford Motor Co (F) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $11.94 it trades 66.6% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +66.6%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +5.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Ford do?
Ford designs, builds and sells cars, trucks and SUVs, led by its F-Series pickups, under the Ford and Lincoln brands. It also sells commercial vehicles, runs Ford Credit, and is investing in electric vehicles.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Ford
- Lincoln
- F-150
- Mustang
- Bronco
- Ford Pro
- Ford Credit
What stands out about Ford?
- The share price implies falling cash flow. At $11.94, even free cash flow per share shrinking 15% a year would still be worth more than the price in this site's DCF. Change the assumptions.
- No filter fails. F passes 3 of the 8 value filters and 5 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $11.94, F is 6.5% above its low of $11.21 and 31.5% below its high of $17.44. See the range.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.38; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
- Dividend raises 2 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 5.05%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Ford's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Ford undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +66.6%
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.64/5 28 analysts this month: 6 strong buy, 6 buy, 16 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.59 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.38 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.38 · accruals −10.3% of assets · >500% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −0.8% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +5.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 6.3% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 1.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 1%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $5.3B → $503M, capital needed $17B → $18B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 3% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Cyclical: the answer depends on where in its cycle the window starts and ends. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.1×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Dividend payout sustainability 2/6 flags
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and F doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: F is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: F isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and F falls short of his bar. In its favor: F is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: F fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, and is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth.
- PEG < 1 n/a
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Ford pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $47.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 1.33
- Price/Sales < 7 0.25
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Ford's margin of safety?
+66% on 2026-10-07 → +67% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Ford in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Ford?
132,808,718 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Ford? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +80%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.4%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 6/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +6% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2018 0.02 → 0.01
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Ford shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for F yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from F's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Ford's 10-year financials show?
From F's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Ford
What kind of company is Ford?
Ford designs, builds and sells cars, trucks and SUVs, led by its F-Series pickups, under the Ford and Lincoln brands. It also sells commercial vehicles, runs Ford Credit, and is investing in electric vehicles. Brands and businesses it owns include Ford, Lincoln, F-150, Mustang, Bronco and Ford Pro. This site groups it with Automobiles stocks.
Is Ford trading above or below its DCF value?
At $11.94, F trades 66.6% below this site's neutral DCF value of $35.77 per share, a margin of safety of +66.6%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Ford pass?
F passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($47.5B), Price/Book < 8 (1.33) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.25). Trailing P/E < 25, PEG Ratio < 1.5, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is Ford trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $11.94, F trades 6.0% above its 52-week low of $11.21 and 31.5% below its 52-week high of $17.44. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
How risky is Ford's balance sheet?
F's Altman Z″-Score is 0.38, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 4.51, against a sector median of 2.06. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does Ford report earnings next?
Ford's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.41 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 3 times, by an average of +63.1%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Ford's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 11, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Ford Motor Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Ford Motor Co (F) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.