Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) stock analysis
Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $42.43 it trades 9.5% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +9.5%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns +3.4% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Smurfit WestRock do?
Smurfit Westrock makes paper-based packaging, including corrugated boxes and containerboard, for shipping and retail.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Smurfit Kappa
- WestRock
What stands out about Smurfit WestRock?
- The share price implies 5.5% yearly growth. At $42.43, SW's free cash flow of $2.74 per share would have to grow 5.5% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($22.2B) and Trailing P/E < 25 (44.64); the other 3 pass and 3 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 44.6× (peer median 19.3×) it ranks 5th of 5 among packaging stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.62 · accruals −6.1% of assets · 349% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +42.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Short interest is elevated. 5.1% of the float is sold short, 5.5 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has Smurfit WestRock's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Smurfit WestRock undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +9.5%
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.15/5 27 analysts this month: 7 strong buy, 17 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 1.66 · Grey zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.62 · accruals −6.1% of assets · 349% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +42.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.4% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.1% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (too few years of filings)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.95 · About fair P/E 44.6× ÷ 47.2% a year of growth behind it. 84th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (too few years of filings); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 5 other packaging stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 3/6 flags
How does Smurfit WestRock compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 5 other packaging stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 19.3× 44.6× ✕5th of 5
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 7.0% 6.5% –4th of 6
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 12% 3% ✕5th of 6
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 5.7% 1.6% ✕5th of 6
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 8.1% −29.4% ✕6th of 6
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.02 0.79 ✓2nd of 6
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.16% 4.16% –3rd of 6
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and SW doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: SW is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: SW isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and SW falls short of his bar. In its favor: SW pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: SW isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Smurfit WestRock pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $22.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 44.64
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.95
- Price/Book < 8 1.23
- Price/Sales < 7 0.71
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Smurfit WestRock's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Smurfit WestRock in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Smurfit WestRock?
26,395,328 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Smurfit WestRock? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +47%
- Short interest under 5% of float 5.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +29% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2023 0.61 → 0.75
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Smurfit WestRock shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for SW yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from SW's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Smurfit WestRock's 10-year financials show?
From SW's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 4 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Smurfit WestRock
What kind of company is Smurfit WestRock?
Smurfit Westrock makes paper-based packaging, including corrugated boxes and containerboard, for shipping and retail. Brands and businesses it owns include Smurfit Kappa and WestRock. This site groups it with Packaging stocks.
Is Smurfit WestRock trading above or below its DCF value?
At $42.43, SW trades 9.5% below this site's neutral DCF value of $46.86 per share, a margin of safety of +9.5%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Smurfit WestRock pass?
SW passes 3 of 8. It passes PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.95), Price/Book < 8 (1.23) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.71). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($22.2B) and Trailing P/E < 25 (44.64). EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Smurfit WestRock's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates SW Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.62 · accruals −6.1% of assets · 349% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.4% of revenue · share count +42.2% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does Smurfit WestRock return to shareholders?
SW's net shareholder yield is +3.4%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 4.1% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.6%, as a share of today's market cap. Its trailing dividend yield is 4.16%, paid out of 64% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 3 of 6 flags (a risky earnings payout, weak interest coverage and declining revenue). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does Smurfit WestRock report earnings next?
Smurfit WestRock's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.61 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 0 times, by an average of −23.3%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Smurfit WestRock's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Smurfit WestRock PLC analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.