International Paper Co (IP) stock analysis
International Paper Co (IP) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 0 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 0 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $33.68 it trades 88.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -88.0%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does International Paper do?
International Paper makes containerboard and corrugated packaging, mostly boxes used for shipping and storing goods.
What stands out about International Paper?
- The share price implies 24.2% yearly growth. At $33.68, IP's free cash flow of $1.05 per share would have to grow 24.2% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($17.8B); the other 3 pass and 4 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 3.1% (peer median 7.0%) it ranks 6th of 6 among packaging stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.67 · accruals −17.2% of assets · share count +20.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.7% of the float is sold short, 7.8 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
How has International Paper's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is International Paper undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -88.0%
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.05/5 21 analysts this month: 6 strong buy, 11 buy, 3 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.95 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.67 · accruals −17.2% of assets · share count +20.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) 5.8% gross Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.5% + buybacks 0.4%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 16%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $1.9B → −$399M, capital needed $19B → $18B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now −2% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (falling or negative earnings)
- Compounder lenses (4) 0 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back (n/a), price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew -0.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: cannot be measured (stock comp not reported); Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (falling or negative earnings). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 5 other packaging stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 4/6 flags
How does International Paper compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 5 other packaging stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 7.0% 3.1% ✕6th of 6
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 12% −22% ✕6th of 6
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 5.7% −13.0% ✕6th of 6
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 8.1% −18.0% ✕5th of 6
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 1.02 0.64 ✓1st of 6
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 3.16% 5.50% ✓2nd of 6
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and IP doesn't clear enough of it yet. Where it comes up short: IP isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and IP falls short of his bar. Where it comes up short: IP fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer, is growing earnings outside the 10–25% range he considered the sustainable sweet spot, is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, is asking investors to pay a steep multiple for that growth, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-25% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 27 n/a
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does International Paper pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $17.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 n/a
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 -0.00
- Price/Book < 8 1.23
- Price/Sales < 7 0.99
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% n/a
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is International Paper's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is International Paper in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in International Paper?
44,897,200 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with International Paper? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -11%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.7%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +14% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 2.61 → 0.66
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have International Paper shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for IP yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from IP's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do International Paper's 10-year financials show?
From IP's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about International Paper
What kind of company is International Paper?
International Paper makes containerboard and corrugated packaging, mostly boxes used for shipping and storing goods. This site groups it with Packaging stocks.
Is International Paper trading above or below its DCF value?
At $33.68, IP trades 88.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $17.92 per share, a margin of safety of −88.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does International Paper pass?
IP passes 3 of 8. It passes PEG Ratio < 1.5 (-0.00), Price/Book < 8 (1.23) and Price/Sales < 7 (0.99). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($17.8B). Trailing P/E < 25, EPS Growth YoY > -5%, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are International Paper's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates IP Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −2.67 · accruals −17.2% of assets · share count +20.4% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does International Paper return to shareholders?
IP's gross shareholder yield is 5.8%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 5.5% + buybacks 0.4%. Stock comp is not reported in its filings, so no net figure. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 16%. Its trailing dividend yield is 5.50%, paid out of 177% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 4 of 6 flags (a high cash-flow payout, a risky earnings payout, weak interest coverage and declining revenue). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does International Paper report earnings next?
International Paper's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.29 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of +112.5%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: International Paper's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this International Paper Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on International Paper Co (IP) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.