Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) stock analysis
Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) clears 2 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $196.19 it trades 718.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -718.1%). Its earnings quality rates Weak and it returns −0.1% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Palantir do?
Palantir sells software that lets governments and large companies combine and analyze their data, including AI tools. It has long served US defense and intelligence agencies and is expanding in commercial business.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Gotham
- Foundry
- Apollo
- AIP
What stands out about Palantir?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $196.19, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 4 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (155.53), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.71) and Price/Book < 8 (48.00) and 1 more; the other 2 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: debt / equity. At 0.00 (peer median 0.60) it ranks 1st of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 0.7% (peer median 3.8%) it ranks 42nd of 44 among technology stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Earnings quality: Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.99 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −6.7% of assets · 174% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 15.3% of revenue · share count +5.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). See the Earnings Quality Screener.
How has Palantir's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Palantir undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -718.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 155.5x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 187.9x–401.2x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.95/5 39 analysts this month: 12 strong buy, 16 buy, 9 hold, 1 sell, 1 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 10.62 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch Beneish M-score −1.99 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −6.7% of assets · 174% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 15.3% of revenue · share count +5.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −0.1% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.25 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit −$791M → $615M, capital needed −$431M → −$80M, 2018–2025 (3-year averages); its capital is negative: customers and suppliers fund it. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.71 · Well above fair P/E 155.5× ÷ 57.4% a year of growth behind it. 306th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 0 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit started from a loss); Profit is real: not cleared (2 earnings-quality flags); Cash to owners: not cleared (−0.1% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.71, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 43 other technology stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
How does Palantir compare with its peers?
4 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 43 other technology stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.0× 155.5× ✕35th of 39
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 3.8% 0.7% ✕42nd of 44
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 24% 37% –17th of 44
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 16.9% 49.0% ✓5th of 44
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 19.1% 78.9% ✓2nd of 44
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.60 0.00 ✓1st of 44
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PLTR doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: PLTR is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, and converts sales into profit at healthy margins. Where it comes up short: PLTR and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PLTR falls short of his bar. In its favor: PLTR isn't leaning on debt to fund that growth. Where it comes up short: PLTR doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, is growing earnings outside the 20-50% band he considered sustainable for a fast grower - either not fast enough to earn the label, or a pace he'd flag as unlikely to hold up, is priced above what he'd pay even for a company growing this quickly, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- P/E < 40 ✕
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Palantir pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $469.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 155.53
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.71
- Price/Book < 8 48.00
- Price/Sales < 7 76.21
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +224.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Palantir's margin of safety?
-708% on 2026-10-07 → -718% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Palantir in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Palantir?
55,587,983 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Palantir? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -383%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 2/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +83% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2020 0.13 → 0.00
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Palantir shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for PLTR yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PLTR's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Palantir's 10-year financials show?
From PLTR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 8 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Palantir
What kind of company is Palantir?
Palantir sells software that lets governments and large companies combine and analyze their data, including AI tools. It has long served US defense and intelligence agencies and is expanding in commercial business. Brands and businesses it owns include Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and AIP. This site groups it with Technology stocks.
Is Palantir trading above or below its DCF value?
At $196.19, PLTR trades 718.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $23.98 per share, a margin of safety of −718.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Palantir pass?
PLTR passes 2 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($469.2B) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+224.2%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (155.53), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.71), Price/Book < 8 (48.00) and Price/Sales < 7 (76.21). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Palantir's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates PLTR Weak · 2 flags, 1 watch. Beneish M-score −1.99 (grey zone), mostly from very fast sales growth · accruals −6.7% of assets · 174% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 15.3% of revenue · share count +5.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (on watch), stock-based compensation (flagged) and share dilution (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How fast has Palantir grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2025, PLTR's revenue grew from $595 million to $4.5 billion, 33.4% a year. Net income went from −$580 million to $1.6 billion, and its net profit margin from -97.5% to 36.3%. In fiscal 2025 it produced $2.1 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 46.9% of its revenue. All figures are from PLTR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
When does Palantir report earnings next?
Palantir's next earnings report is expected on November 2, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.42 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +15.1%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Palantir's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 17, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Palantir Technologies Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.