Pultegroup Inc (PHM) stock analysis
Pultegroup Inc (PHM) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 8 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $119.48 it trades 29.4% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +29.4%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +6.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Pultegroup do?
PulteGroup builds and sells single-family homes under the Pulte, Centex and Del Webb brands.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Pulte
- Centex
- Del Webb
- DiVosta
What stands out about Pultegroup?
- The share price implies shrinking cash flow. At $119.48, PHM's free cash flow of $9.90 per share would have to shrink 0.5% a year at first, then recover to 2.5% growth by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8% growth, so the price asks for less growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($21.5B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.50) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-18.3%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $119.48, PHM is 9.3% above its low of $109.35 and 16.2% below its high of $142.56. See the range.
- Weakest against peers: dividend yield. At 0.88% (peer median 2.44%) it ranks 16th of 16 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 0.88%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Pultegroup's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Pultegroup undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +29.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 11.3x · at/above its priciest point Real range: 4.1x–10.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.73/5 22 analysts this month: 4 strong buy, 10 buy, 6 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 3.68 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch accruals 2.0% of assets · 73% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −5.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +6.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.8% + buybacks 5.6% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 47%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (no current-assets line on its balance sheet)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.50 · Well above fair P/E 11.3× ÷ 4.5% a year of growth behind it. 285th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (no current-assets line on its balance sheet); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.50, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Flagged (3/6 filters failed)
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Pultegroup compare with its peers?
3 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 11.3× ✓2nd of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 8.3% ✓5th of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 15% ✕16th of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 11.6% –12th of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% −7.3% ✕16th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.18 ✓4th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 0.88% ✕16th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PHM clears it. In its favor: PHM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PHM falls short of his bar. In its favor: PHM isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: PHM doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, and isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Pultegroup pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $21.5B
- Trailing P/E < 25 11.25
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.50
- Price/Book < 8 1.65
- Price/Sales < 7 1.31
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -18.3%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Pultegroup's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Pultegroup in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Pultegroup?
8,213,045 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Pultegroup? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +58%
- Short interest under 5% of float 4.4%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +8% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2021 0.01 → 0.00
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Pultegroup shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PHM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Pultegroup's 10-year financials show?
From PHM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Pultegroup
What kind of company is Pultegroup?
PulteGroup builds and sells single-family homes under the Pulte, Centex and Del Webb brands. Brands and businesses it owns include Pulte, Centex, Del Webb and DiVosta. This site groups it with Consumer products stocks.
Is Pultegroup trading above or below its DCF value?
At $119.48, PHM trades 29.4% below this site's neutral DCF value of $169.12 per share, a margin of safety of +29.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Pultegroup pass?
PHM passes 3 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (11.25), Price/Book < 8 (1.65) and Price/Sales < 7 (1.31). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($21.5B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.50) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-18.3%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Pultegroup's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates PHM Strong · 1 watch. accruals 2.0% of assets · 73% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.3% of revenue · share count −5.0% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: cash conversion (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does Pultegroup return to shareholders?
PHM's net shareholder yield is +6.2%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.8% + buybacks 5.6% − stock comp 0.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 47%. Its trailing dividend yield is 0.88%, paid out of 10% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (declining revenue). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where is Pultegroup trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $119.48, PHM trades 8.3% above its 52-week low of $109.35 and 16.2% below its 52-week high of $142.56. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Pultegroup's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 4, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Pultegroup Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Pultegroup Inc (PHM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.