Progressive Corp (PGR) stock analysis
Progressive Corp (PGR) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 8 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit insurance companies, so no margin of safety is shown. Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.1% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Progressive do?
Progressive Corporation sells auto insurance, along with home and commercial cover, directly and through agents.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Progressive
- Flo
- Snapshot
What stands out about Progressive?
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (34.61); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: dividend yield. At 6.12% (peer median 1.75%) it ranks 1st of 23 among insurance stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- P/E at the bottom of its own range. PGR trades at 11.4× trailing earnings; at the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years the multiple was between 11.8× and 105.5×.
- Revenue grew 15.8% a year. From $23.4 billion in fiscal 2016 to $87.7 billion in fiscal 2025, from its own 10-K filings.
How has Progressive's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Progressive undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Insurance)
- P/E vs. its own history 11.4x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 11.8x–105.5x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.42/5 31 analysts this month: 3 strong buy, 8 buy, 19 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.45 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Insurance)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals −5.5% of assets · 183% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.2% of revenue · share count +0.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.1% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.2% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 8%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (bank, insurer, lender or REIT)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 34.6 · Well above fair P/E 11.4× ÷ 0.3% a year of growth behind it. 439th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), cash back, price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (bank, insurer, lender or REIT); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.9% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 34.6, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 22 other insurance stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Progressive compare with its peers?
3 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 22 other insurance stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 13.2× 11.4× –9th of 23
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 20% 35% ✓3rd of 23
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.2% 12.8% –14th of 23
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 6.12% ✓1st of 23
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and PGR clears it. In its favor: PGR is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and PGR falls short of his bar. In its favor: PGR is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth, and is backing its growth up with real free cash flow. Where it comes up short: PGR fails his signature PEG test, he'd call this pricey for the growth on offer.
- PEG < 1 ✕
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Progressive pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $133.1B
- Trailing P/E < 25 11.38
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 34.61
- Price/Book < 8 3.88
- Price/Sales < 7 1.46
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +4.9%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Progressive's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how insurance companies report cash flow.
Where is Progressive in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Progressive?
6,810,980 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Progressive? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Insurance)
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.2%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Progressive shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from PGR's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Progressive's 10-year financials show?
From PGR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Progressive
What kind of company is Progressive?
Progressive Corporation sells auto insurance, along with home and commercial cover, directly and through agents. Brands and businesses it owns include Progressive, Flo and Snapshot. This site groups it with Insurance stocks.
Why does Progressive have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit insurers, whose operating cash flow swings with premiums, claims and investment float rather than with what is left over for owners. So PGR gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Progressive pass?
PGR passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($133.1B), Trailing P/E < 25 (11.38), Price/Book < 8 (3.88), Price/Sales < 7 (1.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+4.9%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (34.61). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Progressive return to shareholders?
PGR's net shareholder yield is +2.1%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 2.2% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 8%. Its trailing dividend yield is 6.12%, paid out of 51% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags (a yield far above its sector's). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How fast has Progressive grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, PGR's revenue grew from $23.4 billion to $87.7 billion, 15.8% a year. Net income went from $1.0 billion to $11.3 billion, and its net profit margin from 4.4% to 12.9%. Earnings per share went from $1.76 to $19.23 on today's share count, 30.4% a year. All figures are from PGR's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Is Progressive's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
PGR trades at 11.4× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 11.8× and 105.5× (average 35.2×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Progressive's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Mar 2, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Progressive Corp analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Progressive Corp (PGR) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.