Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) stock analysis
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 0 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 1 of 5 Lynch-style checks. A free-cash-flow DCF does not fit insurance companies, so no margin of safety is shown. It returns +0.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Arthur J. Gallagher do?
Arthur J. Gallagher is an insurance broker and risk-management consultancy. It helps businesses and individuals buy insurance and employee benefits and earns commissions and fees.
What stands out about Arthur J. Gallagher?
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (43.81), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-10.5%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: P/E ratio. At 43.8× (peer median 13.2×) it ranks 23rd of 23 among insurance stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Priced at 43.8 times earnings. Price-to-book is 2.9 and return on equity 6.7%. See the value diligence check.
How has Arthur J. Gallagher's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Arthur J. Gallagher undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) n/a (Insurance)
- P/E vs. its own history 43.8x · the middle Real range: 35.6x–49.8x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.96/5 28 analysts this month: 6 strong buy, 15 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.97 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) n/a (Insurance)
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) n/a (bank, insurer or REIT)
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +0.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 129%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (bank, insurer, lender or REIT)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.46 · Well above fair P/E 43.8× ÷ 17.8% a year of growth behind it. 279th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 0 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit (n/a), cash back, price Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (bank, insurer, lender or REIT); Profit is real: cannot be measured (bank, insurer or REIT); Cash to owners: not cleared (+0.7% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.46, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 0 of 4 measures above the median Compared with the 22 other insurance stocks this site tracks: 0 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Arthur J. Gallagher compare with its peers?
0 of 4 measures sit above the median of the 22 other insurance stocks tracked here, 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 13.2× 43.8× ✕23rd of 23
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 20% 7% ✕23rd of 23
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 14.2% 10.0% ✕18th of 23
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.75% 1.01% ✕19th of 23
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and AJG doesn't clear enough of it yet. Where it comes up short: AJG isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and AJG falls short of his bar. In its favor: AJG isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type. Where it comes up short: AJG doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Arthur J. Gallagher pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $68.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 43.81
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.46
- Price/Book < 8 2.90
- Price/Sales < 7 4.36
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -10.5%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Arthur J. Gallagher's margin of safety?
A standard free-cash-flow DCF doesn't fit how insurance companies report cash flow.
Where is Arthur J. Gallagher in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Arthur J. Gallagher?
8,234,507 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Arthur J. Gallagher? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case n/a (Insurance)
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Arthur J. Gallagher shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from AJG's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Arthur J. Gallagher's 10-year financials show?
From AJG's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Arthur J. Gallagher
What kind of company is Arthur J. Gallagher?
Arthur J. Gallagher is an insurance broker and risk-management consultancy. It helps businesses and individuals buy insurance and employee benefits and earns commissions and fees. This site groups it with Insurance stocks.
Why does Arthur J. Gallagher have no margin of safety on this site?
This site's DCF values a company from its free cash flow, and that does not fit insurers, whose operating cash flow swings with premiums, claims and investment float rather than with what is left over for owners. So AJG gets no margin of safety; judge it on the other checks on this page, such as its filters, shareholder yield and ranking against its peers. The method is in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Arthur J. Gallagher pass?
AJG passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($68.8B), Price/Book < 8 (2.90) and Price/Sales < 7 (4.36). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (43.81), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.46) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-10.5%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How much cash does Arthur J. Gallagher return to shareholders?
AJG's net shareholder yield is +0.9%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 1.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 129%. Its trailing dividend yield is 1.01%, paid out of 30% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
When does Arthur J. Gallagher report earnings next?
Arthur J. Gallagher's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.03 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of −2.4%.
How heavily is Arthur J. Gallagher stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 3.3% of AJG's float was sold short (8,234,507 shares, 5.5 days to cover), up 29.2% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Arthur J. Gallagher's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 17, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.