O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) stock analysis
O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 0 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $92.00 it trades 96.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -96.0%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.9% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does O'Reilly Automotive do?
O'Reilly Automotive sells car parts, tools and accessories to do-it-yourself drivers and professional repair shops through more than 6,000 stores in the US, Mexico and Canada.
What stands out about O'Reilly Automotive?
- The share price implies 25.3% yearly growth. At $92.00, ORLY's free cash flow of $2.75 per share would have to grow 25.3% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (27.23), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.74) and Price/Book < 8 (332.53); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: return on equity. At 423% (peer median 45%) it ranks 1st of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: debt / equity. At 17.55 (peer median 0.84) it ranks 19th of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.09; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How has O'Reilly Automotive's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is O'Reilly Automotive undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -96.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 27.2x · the middle Real range: 22.7x–30.8x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.09/5 35 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 20 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Up from 4.06 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.09 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.48 · accruals −1.4% of assets · 122% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.2% of revenue · share count −3.3% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.9% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 2.9% − stock comp 0.0%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 58%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $0.52 per $1 of new profit · See's-like Operating profit $1.7B → $3.3B, capital needed $3.8B → $4.6B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 71% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 2.74 · Well above fair P/E 27.2× ÷ 9.9% a year of growth behind it. 314th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.9×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 2.74, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
How does O'Reilly Automotive compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 27.2× ✕15th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 3.0% ✕15th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 423% ✓1st of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 14.3% ✓4th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 8.5% –9th of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 17.55 ✕19th of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and ORLY doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: ORLY is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: ORLY carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and ORLY falls short of his bar. Where it comes up short: ORLY doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business, and trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does O'Reilly Automotive pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $72.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 27.23
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 2.74
- Price/Book < 8 332.53
- Price/Sales < 7 3.89
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +10.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is O'Reilly Automotive's margin of safety?
-84% on 2026-10-07 → -96% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is O'Reilly Automotive in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in O'Reilly Automotive?
24,621,442 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with O'Reilly Automotive? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -16%
- Short interest under 5% of float 3.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +11% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.16 → 29.40
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have O'Reilly Automotive shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from ORLY's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do O'Reilly Automotive's 10-year financials show?
From ORLY's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about O'Reilly Automotive
What kind of company is O'Reilly Automotive?
O'Reilly Automotive sells car parts, tools and accessories to do-it-yourself drivers and professional repair shops through more than 6,000 stores in the US, Mexico and Canada. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is O'Reilly Automotive trading above or below its DCF value?
At $92.00, ORLY trades 96.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $46.94 per share, a margin of safety of −96.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does O'Reilly Automotive pass?
ORLY passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($72.2B), Price/Sales < 7 (3.89) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+10.8%). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (27.23), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (2.74) and Price/Book < 8 (332.53). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How risky is O'Reilly Automotive's balance sheet?
ORLY's Altman Z″-Score is 0.09, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 17.55. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does O'Reilly Automotive report earnings next?
O'Reilly Automotive's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.95 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of −1.1%.
Does O'Reilly Automotive raise any of Munger's inversion flags?
ORLY fails 3 of the 5 tests in this site's Munger-style inversion check, so it raises 3 flags: Margin of safety, even in the bull case (-16%); Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters (3/6 passed); and Debt/equity stable since 2016 (1.16 → 29.40). It passes Short interest under 5% of float and Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum. Munger's habit was to invert the question and look for reasons to hesitate. These flags are data-driven prompts, not a verdict, and they cannot judge management, competitive position or accounting risk.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: O'Reilly Automotive's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 27, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this O'Reilly Automotive Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.