Carvana Co (CVNA) stock analysis
Carvana Co (CVNA) clears 3 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 2 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $58.72 it trades 309.1% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -309.1%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns −0.1% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Carvana do?
Carvana sells used cars online, with home delivery or pickup from its vending-style towers, and finances many of the sales.
What stands out about Carvana?
- The share price implies more than 40% yearly growth. At $58.72, free cash flow per share would have to grow faster than 40% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF to match the price. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 3 of the 8 value filters. It fails Trailing P/E < 25 (41.39), Price/Book < 8 (16.11) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-67.2%); the other 3 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $58.72, CVNA is 4.4% above its low of $56.26 and 38.6% below its high of $95.69. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: revenue growth. At 54.0% (peer median 7.7%) it ranks 1st of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 1.4% (peer median 4.4%) it ranks 20th of 21 among retail stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has Carvana's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Carvana undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -309.1%
- P/E vs. its own history 41.4x · near the cheap end Real range: 33.0x–179.2x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.91/5 32 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 12 buy, 10 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.94 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 3.95 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −1.45 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from more assets of uncertain value (often acquisitions) · accruals 3.4% of assets · 133% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count −8.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −0.1% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 6 years its split-adjusted share count rose 256%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) n/a (too few years of filings)
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.16 · Well under fair P/E 41.4× ÷ 256% a year of growth behind it. 13th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light (n/a), real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: cannot be measured (too few years of filings); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: not cleared (−0.1% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 20 other retail stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
How does Carvana compare with its peers?
2 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 20 other retail stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 23.2× 41.4× ✕19th of 21
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 1.4% ✕20th of 21
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 45% 47% –9th of 21
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 7.3% 6.3% –13th of 21
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 54.0% ✓1st of 21
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.84 1.30 –14th of 21
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and CVNA doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: CVNA is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year. Where it comes up short: CVNA carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and CVNA falls short of his bar. In its favor: CVNA clears an even tighter PEG-under-1 bar he'd want for a stock growing this fast, and is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone. Where it comes up short: CVNA is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry, is priced above what he'd pay even for a company growing this quickly, and isn't generating enough free cash flow to justify a fast grower's richer price.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✓
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✕
- Price/FCF < 40 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Carvana pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $64.9B
- Trailing P/E < 25 41.39
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.16
- Price/Book < 8 16.11
- Price/Sales < 7 2.59
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -67.2%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Carvana's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Carvana in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Carvana?
67,380,242 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Carvana? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -142%
- Short interest under 5% of float 9.6%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 3/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +5% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 2.40 → 1.47
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Carvana shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for CVNA yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from CVNA's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Carvana's 10-year financials show?
From CVNA's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Carvana
What kind of company is Carvana?
Carvana sells used cars online, with home delivery or pickup from its vending-style towers, and finances many of the sales. This site groups it with Retail stocks.
Is Carvana trading above or below its DCF value?
At $58.72, CVNA trades 309.1% above this site's neutral DCF value of $14.35 per share, a margin of safety of −309.1%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Carvana pass?
CVNA passes 3 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($64.9B), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.16) and Price/Sales < 7 (2.59). It misses Trailing P/E < 25 (41.39), Price/Book < 8 (16.11) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-67.2%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Carvana's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates CVNA Mixed · 1 flag. Beneish M-score −1.45 (above the −1.78 line), mostly from more assets of uncertain value (often acquisitions) · accruals 3.4% of assets · 133% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count −8.9% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (flagged). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
Where is Carvana trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $58.72, CVNA trades 5.3% above its 52-week low of $56.26 and 38.6% below its 52-week high of $95.69. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
When does Carvana report earnings next?
Carvana's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.45 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 2 times, by an average of −3.0%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Carvana's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 18, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Carvana Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Carvana Co (CVNA) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.