Nike Inc (NKE) stock analysis
Nike Inc (NKE) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 4 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $38.32 it trades 52.0% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -52.0%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Nike do?
Nike designs and sells athletic shoes, apparel and equipment through retail partners and its own stores and apps. Manufacturing is outsourced to contract factories, mainly in Asia.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Nike
- Jordan
- Converse
What stands out about Nike?
- The share price implies 18.6% yearly growth. At $38.32, NKE's free cash flow of $1.48 per share would have to grow 18.6% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.97); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 3.9% (peer median 5.1%) it ranks 18th of 19 among consumer products stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Short interest is elevated. 8.4% of the float is sold short, 2.6 days to cover, above this site's 5% flag. See the figures.
- Dividend raises 1 of 6 flags. Its trailing yield is 4.28%. See the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How has Nike's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Nike undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -52.0%
- P/E vs. its own history 18.3x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 22.0x–32.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Hold · 3.40/5 48 analysts this month: 9 strong buy, 7 buy, 26 hold, 6 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.54 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · 1 watch Beneish M-score −2.19 (grey zone), mostly from receivables growing faster than sales · accruals 0.6% of assets · 116% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.5% of revenue · share count −1.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to May 2026) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.2% net Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 4.2% + buybacks 0.3% − stock comp 1.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 21%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $16.74 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry Operating profit $4.7B → $4.8B, capital needed $9.1B → $12B, 2017–2026 (3-year averages); return on capital now 41% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.97 · Above fair P/E 18.3× ÷ 9.3% a year of growth behind it. 222nd lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.0×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.97, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 1 flag
- Standing vs. sector peers 2 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 18 other consumer products stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 2 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 1/6 flags
How does Nike compare with its peers?
2 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 18 other consumer products stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 2 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.3× 18.3× –10th of 19
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 5.1% 3.9% ✕18th of 19
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 30% 21% –12th of 19
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.8% 6.7% ✕17th of 19
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 1.8% −1.2% –13th of 19
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.54 0.52 –8th of 19
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 2.44% 4.28% ✓4th of 16
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NKE doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: NKE is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, and earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry. Where it comes up short: NKE carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2026
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NKE falls short of his bar. In its favor: NKE pays a real dividend, the actual reason he bought slow growers at all, is growing at the modest, GDP-ish pace typical of a slow grower, isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, and is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it. Where it comes up short: NKE trades expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✓
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Nike pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $56.7B
- Trailing P/E < 25 18.33
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.97
- Price/Book < 8 3.72
- Price/Sales < 7 1.24
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -2.4%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Nike's margin of safety?
-37% on 2026-10-07 → -52% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Nike in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Nike?
99,243,778 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Nike? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +10%
- Short interest under 5% of float 8.4%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +13% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2017 0.28 → 0.53
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Nike shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NKE's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Nike's 10-year financials show?
From NKE's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Nike
What kind of company is Nike?
Nike designs and sells athletic shoes, apparel and equipment through retail partners and its own stores and apps. Manufacturing is outsourced to contract factories, mainly in Asia. Brands and businesses it owns include Nike, Jordan and Converse. This site groups it with Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods stocks.
Is Nike trading above or below its DCF value?
At $38.32, NKE trades 52.0% above this site's neutral DCF value of $25.21 per share, a margin of safety of −52.0%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Nike pass?
NKE passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($56.7B), Trailing P/E < 25 (18.33), Price/Book < 8 (3.72), Price/Sales < 7 (1.24) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-2.4%). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.97). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Are Nike's reported earnings reliable?
This site's earnings-quality check rates NKE Strong · 1 watch. Beneish M-score −2.19 (grey zone), mostly from receivables growing faster than sales · accruals 0.6% of assets · 116% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.5% of revenue · share count −1.6% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to May 2026). Concerns: the Beneish M-score (on watch). The five checks are the Beneish M-score (manipulation risk), accruals, cash conversion, stock-based compensation and share dilution; the Earnings Quality Screener shows how each is graded.
How much cash does Nike return to shareholders?
NKE's net shareholder yield is +3.2%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2026): dividends 4.2% + buybacks 0.3% − stock comp 1.3%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 21%. Its trailing dividend yield is 4.28%, paid out of 111% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 1 of 6 flags (a high cash-flow payout). See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
How heavily is Nike stock sold short?
As of September 30, 2026, 8.4% of NKE's float was sold short (99,243,778 shares, 2.6 days to cover), up 15.8% from the prior reporting period. FINRA publishes short interest twice a month, so it changes about every two weeks; this site flags anything above 5% of the float.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Nike's 10-K annual report for the year ended May 31, 2026, filed Jul 15, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Nike Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Nike Inc (NKE) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.