Netflix Inc (NFLX) stock analysis
Netflix Inc (NFLX) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 6 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $67.05 it trades 42.8% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -42.8%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +3.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Netflix do?
Netflix is a subscription video-streaming service with original series, films and licensed shows in about 190 countries. It earns money from monthly subscriptions and a growing ad-supported tier, and also makes live events and games.
What stands out about Netflix?
- The share price implies 17.0% yearly growth. At $67.05, NFLX's free cash flow of $2.75 per share would have to grow 17.0% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Price/Book < 8 (9.47); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is rising. It went from -49% on Oct 7 to -43% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $67.05, NFLX is 3.1% above its low of $65.04 and 46.0% below its high of $124.14. See the range.
- Clears all 4 compounder lenses. It grows profit on little capital, reports real earnings, returns cash to owners and is not priced for perfection on this site's tests. See Compounders at a Fair Price.
How has Netflix's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Netflix undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -42.8%
- P/E vs. its own history 18.8x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 29.6x–53.6x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.98/5 57 analysts this month: 14 strong buy, 29 buy, 13 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 5.29 · Safe zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean accruals 1.5% of assets · 99% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.8% of revenue · share count −1.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +3.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 3.3% − stock comp 0.1%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count rose 14%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $1.98 per $1 of new profit · FlightSafety-like Operating profit $941M → $10B, capital needed −$273M → $18B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 56% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Content it has paid for is not counted as capital here, so the capital it needs is understated. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.10 · Above fair P/E 18.8× ÷ 17.0% a year of growth behind it. 107th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 4 of 4 Capital-light growth: cleared; Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 5 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 12 other media stocks this site tracks: 3 in the top third, 0 in the bottom third.
How does Netflix compare with its peers?
5 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 12 other media stocks tracked here, 3 in the top third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.1× 18.8× ✓4th of 11
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.8% 4.1% –8th of 13
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 15% 50% ✓3rd of 13
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 8.7% 29.7% ✓4th of 13
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 10.8% 14.7% –6th of 13
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.57 0.52 –6th of 13
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NFLX doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: NFLX is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, converts sales into profit at healthy margins, has grown earnings per share at a solid clip over five years, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: NFLX carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✓
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✓
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NFLX falls short of his bar. In its favor: NFLX is growing earnings 20-50% a year, his classic fast-grower zone, isn't asking too much even by a fast grower's usual richer multiple, and is generating real cash to back up a fast grower's higher price tag. Where it comes up short: NFLX doesn't clear the tighter PEG bar a fast grower needs to justify its pace, and is leaning on more debt than he liked a growth story to carry.
- PEG < 1 (stricter for fast growers) ✕
- EPS growth 20%-50% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- P/E < 40 ✓
- Price/FCF < 40 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Netflix pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $277.4B
- Trailing P/E < 25 18.79
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.10
- Price/Book < 8 9.47
- Price/Sales < 7 5.58
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +48.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Netflix's margin of safety?
-49% on 2026-10-07 → -43% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Netflix in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Netflix?
82,230,159 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Netflix? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +16%
- Short interest under 5% of float 2.0%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +3% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.25 → 0.51
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Netflix shareholders gained per year?
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NFLX's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Netflix's 10-year financials show?
From NFLX's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Netflix
What kind of company is Netflix?
Netflix is a subscription video-streaming service with original series, films and licensed shows in about 190 countries. It earns money from monthly subscriptions and a growing ad-supported tier, and also makes live events and games. This site groups it with Media stocks.
Is Netflix trading above or below its DCF value?
At $67.05, NFLX trades 42.8% above this site's neutral DCF value of $46.95 per share, a margin of safety of −42.8%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Netflix pass?
NFLX passes 5 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($277.4B), Trailing P/E < 25 (18.79), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.10), Price/Sales < 7 (5.58) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+48.8%). It misses Price/Book < 8 (9.47). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
How fast has Netflix grown its revenue and profit?
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025, NFLX's revenue grew from $8.8 billion to $45.2 billion, 19.9% a year. Net income went from $187 million to $11.0 billion, and its net profit margin from 2.1% to 24.3%. Earnings per share went from $0.04 to $2.53 on today's share count, 58.5% a year. In fiscal 2025 it produced $9.5 billion of free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending), 20.9% of its revenue. All figures are from NFLX's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) and are shown year by year in the 10-Year Financials section of the card above.
Where is Netflix trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $67.05, NFLX trades 3.0% above its 52-week low of $65.04 and 46.0% below its 52-week high of $124.14. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
Is Netflix's P/E ratio high or low compared with its own history?
NFLX trades at 18.8× trailing earnings. At the end of each of its last 5 fiscal years its P/E was between 29.6× and 53.6× (average 41.1×), so today's multiple is at or below the lowest of those years. Each year's P/E pairs net income per diluted share from the 10-K with the closing price at that fiscal year-end.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Netflix's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Jan 23, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Netflix Inc analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Netflix Inc (NFLX) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.