Walt Disney Co (DIS) stock analysis
Walt Disney Co (DIS) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 3 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $113.13 it trades 7.9% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -7.9%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +2.0% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Disney do?
Disney runs theme parks and cruise ships, film and TV studios, and streaming services. It owns some of the best-known entertainment franchises, which feed its parks, merchandise and streaming.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Disney Parks
- Pixar
- Marvel Studios
- Lucasfilm
- ESPN
- ABC
- Disney+
- Hulu
- National Geographic
- 20th Century Studios
What stands out about Disney?
- The share price implies 9.9% yearly growth. At $113.13, DIS's free cash flow of $6.14 per share would have to grow 9.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 2 of the 8 value filters. It fails PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.66) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-48.1%); the other 4 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- The margin of safety is falling. It went from +1% on Oct 7 to -8% on Oct 23 across 5 weekly readings. See the trend.
- Strongest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 5.4% (peer median 4.8%) it ranks 4th of 13 among media stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: revenue growth. At 4.6% (peer median 10.8%) it ranks 10th of 13 among media stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
How has Disney's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is Disney undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -7.9%
- P/E vs. its own history 22.6x · near the cheap end Real range: 16.6x–163.3x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 4.13/5 39 analysts this month: 11 strong buy, 23 buy, 4 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 4.16 last month.
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.56 · accruals −2.9% of assets · 213% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 1.4% of revenue · share count −0.5% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Sep 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +2.0% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.8% − stock comp 0.7%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 5%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $15B → $15B, capital needed $64B → $115B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 13% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. Film and TV costs are not counted as capital here, so the capital it needs is understated. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 1.66 · Above fair P/E 22.6× ÷ 13.7% a year of growth behind it. 186th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, cash back, price Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.0×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: not cleared (+1.0% a year net); Fair price (PEG): not cleared (PEG 1.66, over 1.5). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 0 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 4 of 7 measures above the median Compared with the 12 other media stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 1 in the bottom third.
- Dividend payout sustainability 0/6 · clean
How does Disney compare with its peers?
4 of 7 measures sit above the median of the 12 other media stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 1 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 26.1× 22.6× –5th of 11
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.8% 5.4% ✓4th of 13
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 15% 8% –8th of 13
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 8.7% 8.7% –7th of 13
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 10.8% 4.6% ✕10th of 13
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 0.57 0.42 –5th of 13
- Dividend yieldamong dividend payers · peer median 1.06% 1.15% –3rd of 7
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and DIS doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: DIS carries a conservative amount of debt relative to equity, earns many times its interest expense, so debt service isn't a worry, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: DIS isn't clearing the return-on-equity bar he'd want to see right now, and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✕
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✓
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✓
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and DIS falls short of his bar. In its favor: DIS isn't over-leveraged for a company of its type, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: DIS doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and is priced too rich for how little growth is actually left in the business.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✓
- P/E < 20 ✕
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Disney pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $194.8B
- Trailing P/E < 25 22.65
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 1.66
- Price/Book < 8 1.77
- Price/Sales < 7 1.97
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% -48.1%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Disney's margin of safety?
+1% on 2026-10-07 → -8% on 2026-10-23 (5 weekly readings).
Where is Disney in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Disney?
19,568,986 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Disney? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +36%
- Short interest under 5% of float 1.1%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 4/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +22% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 0.47 → 0.38
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Disney shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for DIS yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from DIS's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Disney's 10-year financials show?
From DIS's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Disney
What kind of company is Disney?
Disney runs theme parks and cruise ships, film and TV studios, and streaming services. It owns some of the best-known entertainment franchises, which feed its parks, merchandise and streaming. Brands and businesses it owns include Disney Parks, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, ESPN and ABC. This site groups it with Media stocks.
Is Disney trading above or below its DCF value?
At $113.13, DIS trades 7.9% above this site's neutral DCF value of $104.84 per share, a margin of safety of −7.9%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Disney pass?
DIS passes 4 of 8. It passes Market Cap > $25B ($194.8B), Trailing P/E < 25 (22.65), Price/Book < 8 (1.77) and Price/Sales < 7 (1.97). It misses PEG Ratio < 1.5 (1.66) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (-48.1%). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
What growth is Disney's share price pricing in?
At $113.13, DIS's free cash flow of $6.14 per share would have to grow 9.9% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
Does Disney pass the Buffett-style and Lynch-style checklists?
On this site's Buffett-style checklist DIS clears 3 of 8 checks and leans no; it misses ROE (TTM) > 11%, ROE (5yr avg) > 11% and Pretax margin > 15% and 2 more. On the Lynch-style checklist it clears 2 of 5 and leans no, with Slow Grower / Cyclical as its Lynch category; it misses Dividend yield > 2.5%, EPS growth 0%-10% and P/E < 20. These are this site's own rules written in the style of each investor, not their personal views; the rules are in the Editorial Standards.
How much cash does Disney return to shareholders?
DIS's net shareholder yield is +2.0%: the cash it returns through dividends and buybacks, minus stock-based compensation, as a share of its market value. Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.9% + buybacks 1.8% − stock comp 0.7%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 5%. Its trailing dividend yield is 1.15%, paid out of 20% of its free cash flow; the dividend-sustainability check raises 0 of 6 flags. See Shareholder Yield Leaders and the Sustainable Dividend Screener.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Disney's 10-K annual report for the year ended Sep 27, 2025, filed Nov 13, 2025 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Walt Disney Co analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Walt Disney Co (DIS) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.