Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) stock analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) clears 5 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 1 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 3 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $15.54 it trades 152.4% above this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of -152.4%). Its earnings quality rates Mixed and it returns −1.2% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings do?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings runs cruise ships under the Norwegian, Oceania and Regent Seven Seas brands.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Norwegian Cruise Line
- Oceania Cruises
- Regent Seven Seas
What stands out about Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings?
- The share price implies 32.1% yearly growth. At $15.54, NCLH's free cash flow of $0.36 per share would have to grow 32.1% a year, fading to 2.5% by year 10, for this site's DCF (10% discount rate) to match the price. This site's baseline starts at 8%, so the price asks for more growth than the baseline. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($7.2B); the other 5 pass and 2 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Strongest against peers: P/E ratio. At 9.4× (peer median 18.2×) it ranks 1st of 18 among hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Weakest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 2.3% (peer median 4.4%) it ranks 18th of 18 among hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is -1.48; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How has Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' share price moved?
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Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) -152.4%
- P/E vs. its own history 9.4x · at/below its cheapest point Real range: 14.6x–51.6x over 3 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.56/5 34 analysts this month: 6 strong buy, 8 buy, 19 hold, 1 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub).
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) -1.48 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Mixed · 1 flag Beneish M-score −2.60 · accruals −7.8% of assets · 410% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.9% of revenue · share count +5.7% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) −1.2% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 0.0% − stock comp 1.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Stock comp outruns what comes back in cash. Over 11 years its split-adjusted share count rose 125%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) $11.48 per $1 of new profit · Capital-hungry · but only 9% return on capital Operating profit $1.1B → $1.3B, capital needed $12B → $15B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 9% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) 0.71 · Under fair P/E 9.4× ÷ 13.3% a year of growth behind it. 59th lowest of 447 stocks with a usable PEG. Lynch's fair value is a PEG of 1; a very high PEG usually means almost no growth, a very low one a profit spike. See PEG Ratio Ranking.
- Compounder lenses (4) 1 of 4 · misses capital-light, real profit, cash back Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 1.2×, under 2×); Profit is real: not cleared (1 earnings-quality flag); Cash to owners: not cleared (−1.4% a year net); Fair price (PEG): cleared. See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 3 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 1 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks: 1 in the top third, 4 in the bottom third.
How does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings compare with its peers?
1 of 6 measure sits above the median of the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks tracked here, 1 in the top third and 4 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.2× 9.4× ✓1st of 18
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 2.3% ✕18th of 18
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 55% 32% ✕13th of 18
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.7% 7.5% ✕14th of 18
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 6.2% ✕13th of 18
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 5.84 5.84 –9th of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and NCLH doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: NCLH is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity. Where it comes up short: NCLH and its five-year average return on equity falls short too, so this isn't just a one-off dip, carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want, is trading above what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth right now, and trades rich relative to owner earnings, the real cash the business could pay out.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✕
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✕
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and NCLH falls short of his bar. In its favor: NCLH clears his signature PEG-under-1 test: growth at a reasonable price, is growing earnings at the steady 10-20% pace of a proper Stalwart, and isn't asking investors to overpay for that growth. Where it comes up short: NCLH carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets, and isn't generating free cash flow to match the growth story.
- PEG < 1 ✓
- EPS growth 10%-20% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 27 ✓
- Price/FCF < 30 ✕
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $7.2B
- Trailing P/E < 25 9.43
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 0.71
- Price/Book < 8 2.79
- Price/Sales < 7 0.71
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +617.0%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings?
96,829,357 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case -49%
- Short interest under 5% of float 21.3%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +9% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 1.41 → 6.61
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for NCLH yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from NCLH's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' 10-year financials show?
From NCLH's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
What kind of company is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings runs cruise ships under the Norwegian, Oceania and Regent Seven Seas brands. Brands and businesses it owns include Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas. This site groups it with Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure stocks.
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings trading above or below its DCF value?
At $15.54, NCLH trades 152.4% above this site's neutral DCF value of $6.16 per share, a margin of safety of −152.4%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings pass?
NCLH passes 5 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (9.43), PEG Ratio < 1.5 (0.71), Price/Book < 8 (2.79), Price/Sales < 7 (0.71) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+617.0%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($7.2B). vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $15.54, NCLH trades 9.3% above its 52-week low of $14.12 and 37.9% below its 52-week high of $25.02. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
How risky is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's balance sheet?
NCLH's Altman Z″-Score is −1.48, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 5.84. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings report earnings next?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's next earnings report is expected on October 29, 2026 before the market opens, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.95 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 4 times, by an average of +21.4%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Mar 2, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.