MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock analysis
MGM Resorts International (MGM) clears 4 of this site's 8 mechanical value filters, 4 of 8 Buffett-style checks and 2 of 5 Lynch-style checks. At $29.50 it trades 71.8% below this site's neutral DCF value (a margin of safety of +71.8%). Its earnings quality rates Strong and it returns +15.6% to shareholders net of dilution. Figures are as of October 23, 2026, from SEC filings and market data refreshed weekly; this is educational analysis, not investment advice.
Data as of October 23, 2026. Refreshed weekly from SEC filings and market data.
What does MGM Resorts International do?
MGM Resorts owns and runs casino resorts in Las Vegas, other US cities and Macau, and an online betting business.
Brands and businesses it owns
- Bellagio
- MGM Grand
- Mandalay Bay
- Aria
- BetMGM
- Cosmopolitan
What stands out about MGM Resorts International?
- The share price implies falling cash flow. At $29.50, even free cash flow per share shrinking 15% a year would still be worth more than the price in this site's DCF. Change the assumptions.
- Misses 1 of the 8 value filters. It fails Market Cap > $25B ($7.3B); the other 4 pass and 3 were not evaluated. See every filter.
- Close to its 52-week low. At $29.50, MGM is 3.6% above its low of $28.47 and 41.8% below its high of $50.69. See the range.
- Strongest against peers: free-cash-flow yield. At 20.8% (peer median 4.4%) it ranks 1st of 18 among hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks. See the ranking.
- Balance sheet in the distress zone. Its Altman Z″-Score is 0.55; below 1.1 is the distress zone, 1.1 to 2.6 the grey zone. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
How has MGM Resorts International's share price moved?
The interactive price chart needs JavaScript.
Is MGM Resorts International undervalued? The value diligence check
Every value-investing signal this site computes for this stock, gathered in one place: the same real numbers from the tools below, not a new score.
- Margin of safety (DCF) +71.8%
- P/E vs. its own history 17.1x · near the cheap end Real range: 9.4x–49.1x over 5 years (net income per diluted share from each fiscal year's 10-K, paired with the real closing price at that fiscal year-end).
- Wall St. analyst rating Buy · 3.52/5 29 analysts this month: 3 strong buy, 11 buy, 13 hold, 2 sell, 0 strong sell (Finnhub). Down from 3.57 last month.
- Altman Z″-Score (bankruptcy risk) 0.55 · Distress zone
- Earnings quality (is the profit real?) Strong · all 5 checks clean Beneish M-score −2.72 · accruals −5.6% of assets · 362% of profit arrived as cash · stock comp 0.5% of revenue · share count −12.1% a year. From the latest 10-K (year to Dec 2025) - see the Earnings Quality Screener for how each check is scored.
- Shareholder yield (cash back to owners) +15.6% net Latest fiscal year (2025): dividends 0.0% + buybacks 16.9% − stock comp 1.2%, as a share of today's market cap. Over 14 years its split-adjusted share count fell 51%. See Shareholder Yield Leaders.
- Capital needed to grow (See's test) Profit did not grow in 10 years Operating profit $1.8B → $1.5B, capital needed $24B → $12B, 2016–2025 (3-year averages); return on capital now 13% before tax. Buffett's See's Candies needed $0.42 per $1 of new profit, FlightSafety $3.20, a typical grower about $5. See Capital-Light Compounders.
- PEG (growth at a reasonable price) n/a (no PEG reported)
- Compounder lenses (4) 2 of 4 · misses capital-light, price (n/a) Capital-light growth: not cleared (profit grew 0.8×, under 2×); Profit is real: cleared; Cash to owners: cleared; Fair price (PEG): cannot be measured (no PEG reported). See Compounders at a Fair Price, which also lets you move the PEG bar.
- Value trap check Clear
- Munger's Inversion Check 2 flags
- Standing vs. sector peers 3 of 6 measures above the median Compared with the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks this site tracks: 2 in the top third, 3 in the bottom third.
How does MGM Resorts International compare with its peers?
3 of 6 measures sit above the median of the 17 other hotels, restaurants & leisure stocks tracked here, 2 in the top third and 3 in the bottom third.
- P/E ratiolower is cheaper · peer median 18.2× 17.1× ✓6th of 18
- Free-cash-flow yieldhigher is cheaper · peer median 4.4% 20.8% ✓1st of 18
- Return on equityhigher is better · peer median 55% 17% ✕16th of 18
- Net marginhigher is better · peer median 11.7% 2.4% ✕18th of 18
- Revenue growthhigher is better, year on year · peer median 7.7% 3.2% ✕18th of 18
- Debt / equitylower is safer · peer median 5.84 2.50 –7th of 17
Peers are the stocks this site tracks in the same sector group, not every listed competitor. The bar runs from the weakest peer (left) to the strongest (right); the tick is the middle. Measures that don't apply to a sector (cash-flow yield for banks, debt for financials) are left out.
What would Buffett & Lynch say?
Buffett's checklist is built around durable, profitable businesses bought at sensible prices, and MGM doesn't clear enough of it yet. In its favor: MGM is currently earning a strong return on shareholders' equity, and has kept that profitability up over five years, not just this year, is trading below what a conservative discounted-cash-flow estimate says it's worth - his own "price is what you pay, value is what you get" test, not a fixed multiple ceiling, and trades at a reasonable multiple of owner earnings, his own term for the real cash a business could pay out. Where it comes up short: MGM carries more debt relative to equity than he typically tolerates, runs thinner pretax margins than he'd like to see, hasn't grown earnings per share fast enough over five years to impress him, and doesn't cover its interest expense as comfortably as he'd want.
- ROE (TTM) > 11% ✓
- ROE (5yr avg) > 11% ✓
- Debt/Equity < 0.5 ✕
- Pretax margin > 15% ✕
- EPS growth (5yr) > 7% ✕
- Interest coverage > 5x ✕
- Trading below intrinsic value (DCF) ✓
- Price vs. owner earnings < 25x ✓
- Bonus: returning capital via buybacks FY2025
Lynch looked for growth stories that weren't overpriced for that growth, and MGM falls short of his bar. In its favor: MGM is cheap enough for a business with limited growth ahead of it, and converts earnings into real cash at a reasonable price. Where it comes up short: MGM doesn't pay much of a dividend, which is the main reason to own a slow grower in the first place, isn't even growing at the modest pace he'd expect from a slow grower, and carries more debt than he liked to see, even allowing for the extra room a large, stable business gets.
- Dividend yield > 2.5% ✕
- EPS growth 0%-10% ✕
- Debt/Equity < 0.6 ✕
- P/E < 20 ✓
- Price/FCF < 25 ✓
Quantitative approximations of each investor's documented approach, not endorsed by either investor or their estates - commentary, not this site's actual ranking criteria. Buffett never published a numeric checklist: only 2 of his 8 checks here trace to his own documented concepts ("owner earnings," from his 1986 shareholder letter, and "price is what you pay, value is what you get," his case against fixed P/E/P/B ceilings) - the other 6 (ROE, debt, margins, growth, interest coverage) use commonly-cited thresholds that are not numbers he himself published. The 8 hard filters below (plus the Munger check and Graham margin of safety) are this site's real, mechanical screen and are computed completely independently of the checklists above.
Berkshire Hathaway's own filing
Which of the 8 value filters does MGM Resorts International pass?
- Market Cap > $25B $7.3B
- Trailing P/E < 25 17.08
- PEG Ratio < 1.5 n/a
- Price/Book < 8 2.89
- Price/Sales < 7 0.41
- EPS Growth YoY > -5% +538.8%
- vs 50-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
- vs 200-day MA (±12%) Not evaluated †
What is MGM Resorts International's margin of safety?
History tracking starts this week - check back in a future week to see how this has moved.
Where is MGM Resorts International in its 52-week range?
What is the short interest in MGM Resorts International?
19,019,942 shares short as of 2026-09-30 (FINRA settlement date). Reported twice a month, so this only changes roughly every two weeks, not daily.
What could go wrong with MGM Resorts International? Munger's inversion check
"Invert, always invert." Instead of reasons to buy, these are reasons to hesitate, not a verdict, and not everything worth knowing about a business.
- Margin of safety, even in the bull case +83%
- Short interest under 5% of float 10.5%
- Passes most of the 6 fundamental filters 5/6 passed
- Price run-up backed by value, not just momentum +4% off 52wk low
- Debt/equity stable since 2016 2.09 → 2.56
Doesn't cover circle of competence, management quality, or accounting concerns: those need judgment, not data.
How much have MGM Resorts International shareholders gained per year?
Not enough clean earnings history to compute this for MGM yet - a loss year in the window breaks the growth math rather than faking a number through it.
An earnings-based proxy, not a stock-price total return - it doesn't capture multiple expansion/contraction or reinvested dividends. EPS from MGM's own 10-K filings; dividend yield is the current trailing yield on today's price, from the same weekly fetch as the rest of this site.
What do MGM Resorts International's 10-year financials show?
From MGM's own 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR): up to the last 10 fiscal years. Press any year's bars for the exact figures.
Frequently asked questions about MGM Resorts International
What kind of company is MGM Resorts International?
MGM Resorts owns and runs casino resorts in Las Vegas, other US cities and Macau, and an online betting business. Brands and businesses it owns include Bellagio, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Aria, BetMGM and Cosmopolitan. This site groups it with Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure stocks.
Is MGM Resorts International trading above or below its DCF value?
At $29.50, MGM trades 71.8% below this site's neutral DCF value of $104.70 per share, a margin of safety of +71.8%. That DCF projects free cash flow for 10 years, with growth starting at 8% and fading to 2.5%, discounted at 10%; it is one set of assumptions, not a forecast. Test your own in the Intrinsic Value Calculator.
How many of this site's 8 value filters does MGM Resorts International pass?
MGM passes 4 of 8. It passes Trailing P/E < 25 (17.08), Price/Book < 8 (2.89), Price/Sales < 7 (0.41) and EPS Growth YoY > -5% (+538.8%). It misses Market Cap > $25B ($7.3B). PEG Ratio < 1.5, vs 50-day MA (±12%) and vs 200-day MA (±12%) were not evaluated, because the moving-average checks only run on stocks that clear the fundamentals first. The 8-filter list shows every stock that passes all of them.
Where is MGM Resorts International trading compared with its 52-week range?
At $29.50, MGM trades 3.7% above its 52-week low of $28.47 and 41.8% below its 52-week high of $50.69. The Near 52-Week Low list tracks stocks in that position.
How risky is MGM Resorts International's balance sheet?
MGM's Altman Z″-Score is 0.55, which falls in the distress zone. Altman's own thresholds are above 2.6 for the safe zone, 1.1 to 2.6 for the grey zone and below 1.1 for the distress zone; the score blends working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and equity against liabilities. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 2.50. See the Altman Z″-Score list.
When does MGM Resorts International report earnings next?
MGM Resorts International's next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026 after the market closes, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.13 per share. Dates come from the Finnhub earnings calendar and can move. In its last 4 quarters it beat the estimate 1 time, by an average of −11.9%.
Where do these numbers come from?
- Financial statements: MGM Resorts International's 10-K annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2025, filed Feb 11, 2026 (filing index). Every earlier year in the 10-year financials comes from the company's older 10-K filings, all listed on SEC EDGAR.
- Prices and market data: quotes, P/E and analyst ratings from Finnhub; daily price history and the 52-week range from Twelve Data, both refreshed weekly. Short interest comes from FINRA, reported twice a month.
- How to check a figure: click any number in the card above to see its exact source, and read the Editorial Standards for every rule behind the checks.
About this MGM Resorts International analysis
This page shows every value-investing check the site runs on MGM Resorts International (MGM) in one place: the 8 mechanical filters, the Buffett and Lynch checklists, a margin of safety from a disclosed DCF, earnings quality, shareholder yield and how it ranks against its sector peers. The numbers come from SEC filings and public market data, refreshed weekly, and the same rules apply to every stock on the stock list. See Editorial Standards for the sources and the rules, or run your own filters in the stock screener.